“The Money Zone”: Games that have a “Calculated vs. Actual” difference of between 2 and 6 points are considered The Money Zone. Since 2015, games that fall within this tier have hit ~55% on a sample of over 700 games. I consider games in this tier to have a statistical advantage in the long run. This is a completely objective calculation that does not account for injuries, roster changes, weather etc. However, I believe the smartest investment is to make small bets on each one of these games and slowly increase them over time if you are successful.
|
Away |
Home |
Calculated Spread |
Actual Spread |
Calculated vs Actual |
Projected Winner ATS |
|
Tennessee |
Houston |
(7.20) |
2.00 |
9.20 |
Houston |
|
Pittsburgh |
Philadelphia |
(18.00) |
(10.50) |
7.50 |
Philadelphia |
|
Cincinnati |
Cleveland |
10.20 |
3.50 |
6.70 |
Cincinnati |
|
Baltimore |
Tampa Bay |
(3.97) |
1.00 |
4.97 |
Tampa Bay |
|
Arizona |
Minnesota |
(7.53) |
(3.50) |
4.03 |
Minnesota |
|
Green Bay |
Buffalo |
(14.47) |
(11.00) |
3.47 |
Buffalo |
|
Washington |
Indianapolis |
0.10 |
(3.00) |
3.10 |
Washington |
|
Carolina |
Atlanta |
(1.50) |
(4.50) |
3.00 |
Carolina |
|
Miami |
Detroit |
6.40 |
3.50 |
2.90 |
Miami |
|
New England |
NY Jets |
5.33 |
2.50 |
2.83 |
New England |
|
NY Giants |
Seattle |
(4.83) |
(3.00) |
1.83 |
Seattle |
|
Denver |
Jacksonville |
(0.33) |
(2.00) |
1.67 |
Denver |
|
Las Vegas |
New Orleans |
1.23 |
2.00 |
0.77 |
New Orleans |
|
San Francisco |
LA Rams |
1.13 |
1.50 |
0.37 |
LA Rams |
**The Money Zone is 23-21 ATS (52.27%) in 2022**
Money Zone picks are Tampa Bay, New England, Minnesota, Buffalo, Washington, Carolina, & Miami
“Shorestein Says” Picks of the Week: Each week I select between 3-5 of my favorite games and do additional analysis on them. I’ve highlighted the “Shorestein Says” picks of the week in yellow. Read below for my in-depth analysis. **Picks of the Week are 14-13 ATS (51.85% for 2022)**
Miami -3.5 @ Detroit: There should be no shortage of points in this contest… However, I think Miami has a number of advantages coming into the week.
Miami’s defense should present problems for Jared Goff. Goff has been terrible against defensive coordinator Josh Boyer who is a member of the Patriots defensive coaching tree. There is now a significant sample of struggles for Goff when he faces Bill Belichick’s disciples. Here are some examples of these struggles:
|
Year |
Opponent |
Key Defensive Staff |
QB Rating |
Result |
|
2019 Superbowl |
Patriots |
Brian Flores, Josh Boyer |
57.90 |
L 3-13 |
|
2021 |
Dolphins |
Brian Flores, Josh Boyer |
65.90 |
L 17-28 |
|
2022 |
Patriots |
Steven Belichick, Jerod Mayo |
62.70 |
L 0-29 |
The problem for Goff has been his inability to navigate through the exotic blitz looks that he is shown by these defensive fronts. In all of the games mentioned above, Goff couldn’t recognize which defenders were coming and which were dropping into coverage. He turned the ball over a ton in the 3 games, and the Lions will stand no chance in this game if turnovers continue to be a problem. He was blitzed 57 times in the 3 games above; expect that to be a major part of the game on Sunday. Detroit’s offense has suddenly cooled off over the past 2 weeks averaging just 3 points per game after their hot start.
On the other side of the ball, Miami should get back into its groove on offense. Look for Raheem Mostert to get close to 20 carries in this game. The Lions continue to be one of the worst run defenses in the league as they allow 5.3 yards per rush (30th in the NFL). Mike McDaniel has started to ramp up the outside zone running scheme, and Mostert has been the primary beneficiary. When Tua and the Dolphins have the play-action game going with Hill and Waddle on the outside, this offense is extremely difficult to defend. The Dolphins should score a ton of points in this game as Tua gets back in his groove.
Taking the Dolphins over team total of 27.5 is another interesting option if you don’t believe in Miami’s defense. I think they should cover both the spread and the team total.
New England -2.5 @ NY Jets: After the Patriots were stunned by the Bears on Monday night, they find themselves in a critical divisional game with the Jets to stay alive in the AFC playoff picture. Things couldn’t have gone much worse for both the Patriots quarterback situation and even more surprisingly, the defense. This week, however, I think Belichick and the Patriots will get back on track against a weakened Jets offense.
Despite the Jets’ 5-2 record, they have gotten horrible quarterback play from Zach Wilson. I expect the Jets passing game to look even worse this week as they suffered key injuries to starting offensive linemen and their most explosive offensive player in Breece Hall. I think the running game will deteriorate immensely from these losses and force Wilson into difficult passing situations. The Patriots dominated the Jets offense in two games last season as Wilson threw 4 interceptions and averaged under 6 yards per attempt. Expect the Patriots defense to play much better on Sunday as they were embarrassed on a national stage on Monday night against an inferior Bears team that they clearly had overlooked.
It’s impossible to determine what to expect from the Patriots QB situation at this point, but my best guess is that Mac Jones returns under center this week. I think his mobility was fine against the Bears, and I think he’ll be put in a much better situation in a critical game with their season likely on the line. The Jets defense has been excellent so far this season, so I think the Patriots will have trouble of their own moving the ball. But I have more confidence in the Patriots to play a clean, turnover-free game than I do in the Jets. Rookie receiver Tyquon Thornton has seen an increase in snap count over the past few weeks. I think it’s possible he could make a big play in this game that could change momentum. I would also look for the Patriots to use Damien Harris more. He should be fully healthy at this point, and I think lessening the load on Rhamondre Stevenson is more beneficial to the Patriot offense.
Arizona @ Minnesota -3.5: I think the well-rested Vikings will score a ton of points against a weak Cardinals defense. The Cardinals have been one of the most blitz-happy defenses in the NFL (2nd highest blitz rate). I think this is a dangerous approach against a team that has one of the most explosive players in the league in Justin Jefferson. Because Arizona blitzes at such a high rate, they have left themselves vulnerable to big plays and yards after the catch opportunities to opposing offenses. In fact, no team has given up more yards after the catch than Arizona by a wide margin.
I think Kevin O’Connell will have a great game plan/strategy on how to counter this aggressive Arizona defense, especially given the extra time from the bye week that he had. I think Arizona’s lack of pass rush has forced them to blitz at such a high rate, and this is a horrible combination going against the Vikings. The Vikings have also been one of the best play-action teams in the league so far. This should be another area on offense where they can take advantage of an over-aggressive defense. Dalvin Cook has been a weapon in the screen game many times before. This week should give him lots of opportunities to be explosive in the passing game.
Minnesota’s defense has had struggles of its own, but I have faith in their ability to generate a pass rush. They have far more talent on the edge with Za’Darius Smith and Danielle Hunter. The Vikings have a top 10 sack % at 7.59% (9th) and should be able to take advantage of a weak offensive line. The Cardinals offense has struggled in 2022:
|
Yards / Play |
Passer Rating |
3rd Down % |
|
4.90 (29th) |
83.40 (25th) |
33.67% (28th) |
This offense has continued to struggle much like they did in the 2nd of the 2021 season, and I think the locker room has lost faith in Cliff Kingsbury. Arizona has yet to beat a team with a winning record, and I doubt that first victory will come this week.
Washington +3 @ Indianapolis: I like the underdog Commanders in a truly ugly NFL matchup. Inexperienced Sam Ehlinger is scheduled to start for Indy, and I think he is certainly in a compromised position taking center under one of the worst performing offensive lines matching up against a strong Washington front 7. The Colts rank just 28th in pressure % allowed, and it has led to a ton of turnovers from Matt Ryan. The Colts have given the ball away 2 times per game so far (29th ranked), and I don’t expect it to improve by bringing in a QB making his first start against a team that has 5 sacks over its last 2 games. I think the Commanders have weaknesses in the secondary, but I don’t think the Indy passing game has the tools to expose those weaknesses. Also, the Indy running game has been a major disappointment in 2022. They’ve dropped all the way to 29th in the NFL in rushing yards per carry at just 3.5. Last season, the Colts running game was the best in the NFL at over 5 yards per rush. I think their inability to run the ball behind their struggling offensive line is a major reason why they’ve started so slow.
I think Washington has rallied around Taylor Heinicke. Carson Wentz got nothing going in the early part of the season, and the momentum has definitely changed with the quarterback switch. I’ve liked what I’ve seen from Brian Robinson at running back as well. I think the Commanders would be wise to use a safe, low-risk game plan with a lot of running plays. I think they should rely on their defense to beat Ehlinger and the struggling Colts offense.
Random Thoughts:
- It’s been a rough two weeks, but I’m feeling better about this week’s slate. Hopefully, things turn around!
- Very disappointed that Jacksonville wasn’t able to close out the Giants last week… Giants are underdogs again to a pretty underwhelming Seattle team. I’m not making the same mistake as last week, but I don’t think I have confidence to back New York.
- Buffalo is now favored by an astounding 11 points against Green Bay. I think even that might not be enough. I’m not touching this Packers team right now.
- I think Carolina is a solid play as a significant underdog to a bad Atlanta team. No defense has given up more huge passing plays than the Falcons. I think it’s hard to trust a team like that as a significant favorite.
- The Bucs have been a hard team to watch so far. I think this week, they get a pretty favorable matchup against a run-heavy team that should play into their defensive strengths. The Ravens also seem to be very banged up with critical players questionable to play including Mark Andrews, their best offensive weapon.
Good luck everyone!
