“The Money Zone”: Games that have a “Calculated vs. Actual” difference of between 2 and 6 points are considered The Money Zone. Since 2015, games that fall within this tier have hit ~55% on a sample of over 700 games. I consider games in this tier to have a statistical advantage in the long run. This is a completely objective calculation that does not account for injuries, roster changes, weather etc. However, I believe the smartest investment is to make small bets on each one of these games and slowly increase them over time if you are successful.
|
Away |
Home |
Calculated Spread |
Actual Spread |
Calculated vs Actual |
Projected Winner ATS |
|
Las Vegas |
Jacksonville |
(9.20) |
1.50 |
10.70 |
Jacksonville |
|
Miami |
Chicago |
(3.10) |
5.00 |
8.10 |
Chicago |
|
Carolina |
Cincinnati |
(14.27) |
(7.50) |
6.77 |
Cincinnati |
|
Seattle |
Arizona |
3.47 |
(2.00) |
5.47 |
Seattle |
|
Tennessee |
Kansas City |
(7.07) |
(12.50) |
5.43 |
Tennessee |
|
LA Chargers |
Atlanta |
7.50 |
3.00 |
4.50 |
LA Chargers |
|
Buffalo |
NY Jets |
8.10 |
12.50 |
4.40 |
NY Jets |
|
Indianapolis |
New England |
(2.37) |
(5.50) |
3.13 |
Indianapolis |
|
Minnesota |
Washington |
1.03 |
3.50 |
2.47 |
Washington |
|
Baltimore |
New Orleans |
0.83 |
2.50 |
1.67 |
New Orleans |
|
Green Bay |
Detroit |
3.20 |
4.00 |
0.80 |
Detroit |
|
LA Rams |
Tampa Bay |
(3.67) |
(3.00) |
0.67 |
Tampa Bay |
|
Philadelphia |
Houston |
14.40 |
14.00 |
0.40 |
Philadelphia |
**The Money Zone is 28-23 ATS (54.90%) in 2022**
Money Zone picks are Seattle, Tennessee, LA Chargers, NY Jets, Indianapolis, & Washington
“Shorestein Says” Picks of the Week: Each week I select between 3-5 of my favorite games and do additional analysis on them. I’ve highlighted the “Shorestein Says” picks of the week in yellow. Read below for my in-depth analysis. **Picks of the Week are 19-13 ATS (59.38% for 2022)**
Indianapolis +5.5 @ New England: I think it’s a hard sell for me to see this struggling Patriots team as a FG+ favorite against a mid-level team. Specifically, I think Indianapolis matches up well with New England on many levels. On defense, the Colts have the strength in the front seven to make things difficult for the Patriots running game. New England’s offensive line has really struggled over the past few games with an injured David Andrews, an inexperienced rookie in Cole Strange, and poor performing tackles. Facing Deforest Buckner on the interior defensive line presents a huge challenge, and the Colts best defensive play-maker, Shaq Leonard (formerly Darius), has returned to the lineup at linebacker.
The Colts have been excellent at defending the run this season allowing just 4.0 yards per carry (3rd in NFL). The Patriots passing game looks shaky at best. Mac Jones was pressured 18 times against the Jets last week which represented over 40% of his drop backs. I can’t get behind an offense that has this many problems that is laying close to a touchdown. To compound these problems, I think Stephon Gilmore is saving his very best for his old team that tossed him aside last season. Look for Gilmore to shadow Jacoby Meyers and shut him down. The Patriots have gotten very little from anyone other than Meyers in the receiving game.
Ehlinger at QB for the Colts was unimpressive at best in his debut last week. However, I expect the Colts to run the ball effectively whether it’s Deon Jackson or a banged-up Jonathan Taylor. The Colts should be able to take advantage of the weaker Patriots defense on the edges. Matt Judon has been great as a pass rusher, but he has gotten exposed against the Ravens and Bears in the running game. The Patriots are vulnerable at the linebacker position, and I think Frank Reich should have some running schemes that should take advantage of it.
Lastly, the Colts have excelled in this type of spot over the past few seasons. As a road underdog since 2020, Indy is 7-3 ATS (70%). They have a number of significant victories including straight up wins over Buffalo (+7.0), San Francisco (+4), and Arizona (+2) that came last season. This year, they upset Kansas City as a significant home underdog. I don’t think this year’s Patriots team has anywhere close to the talent that those teams had.
Minnesota @ Washington +3.5: Washington has quietly got some momentum going. I think whenever this happens, it’s usually directly tied to the performance of its defensive line. After a rough start, the Commanders have turned into one of the better pass rush defenses in the NFL:
|
Def. Pressure % |
Sack % |
3rd Down % |
|
26.0% (4th) |
7.81% (6th) |
31.00% (3rd) |
In their current 3 game winning streak, they’ve allowed an average of under 15 points per game, and have accumulated 7 sacks. Kirk Cousins’ struggle against pressure is well-documented.
Minnesota’s offense has certainly been effective this season, but I still have a lot of questions about their defense. When they aren’t getting home with their pass rush, I’m not sure how well they can hold up in the secondary. When opposing quarterbacks have had time to throw, the Vikings have given up a lot of big plays. Minnesota ranks 31st in the NFL in yards allowed per pass attempt at 7.7. Terry Mclaurin has started to heat up for the Commanders as he has averaged close to 100 yards per game over the last two games. I don’t think Minnesota has anyone that can match up with him on the outside.
The Vikings defense has been excellent at forcing turnovers so far this season, but they have given up a boat load of yardage ranking just 28th in yards allowed per play. I’m not sure how sustainable it is to play that type of defense and continue to win at such a high level. I’m not the biggest believer in Taylor Heinicke, but I think if he’s given time in the pocket, he can make plays against an average secondary. It will also help to go against Minnesota’s worst ranked red zone defense in the NFL (77.78%).
LA Chargers -3 @ Atlanta: I think the Chargers should have their way with a poor Falcons pass defense. Atlanta has gotten carved up in two consecutive games:
|
Opponent |
Passing Yards Allowed |
Points Allowed |
Yards / Pass Att Allowed |
|
Cincinnati |
481.00 |
35.00 |
11.45 |
|
Carolina |
317.00 |
34.00 |
8.81 |
The season to date numbers aren’t much better:
|
Passer Rating Def. |
Yards / Pass Att |
Points Allowed |
Yards Allowed per Play |
|
98.0 (27th) |
7.70 (30th) |
25.60 (29th) |
6.30 (31st) |
Justin Herbert is one of the last quarterbacks that you would want to face with a struggling pass defense, despite his struggles this season. Atlanta has gotten virtually no pass rush (3.61% sack rate 31st) and they’ve had no one to cover up on the back end. Although the Chargers will likely be short on some receivers, they have shown in the past that they can light it up with secondary options like Jalen Guyton and Joshua Palmer. Palmer should step in and have a huge day receiving. Of course, Ekeler will remain an explosive option out of the backfield.
The Chargers have had problems stopping the run, and the Falcons have done a respectable job with their rushing offense. While this is an area of concern for me, I think Herbert and the Chargers passing offense should outpace the Falcons and force them to get out of the running game. I think once Mariota loses the crutch of the running game, he’s far less effective. When Mariota has had to throw 25 times or more this season, the Falcons are just 1-3 (the 1 win came last week against Carolina). Teams have averaged 33.6 pass attempts per game against the Chargers, so I think the game script favors LA.
My guess is this spread will be -3.5 or higher at kickoff, so if you have -3 available, bet it now.
Seattle +2 @ Arizona: I’ve had a solid read on the Cardinals so far in 2022. This week, I think I am just betting the better team with points. Geno Smith’s resurgence has been shocking, but I think at this point, the sample size is getting too large to ignore. He’s been astonishingly effective and now only trails Patrick Mahomes in QB rating. Kenneth Walker has stepped right into Rashaad Penny’s role at running back, and the Seahawks running game hasn’t skipped a beat. The Seahawks rank 3rd in the NFL at 5.3 yards per carry, and Walker has averaged over 100 yards rushing in his 3 starts. I think the Seahawks will continue to put up points at a blistering clip this Sunday as they look to improve on their 4th highest 26.3 points per game.
Aside from force-feeding Deandre Hopkins, I’m not sure what this Cardinals team does well? They average a paltry 4.9 yards per play offensively (30th), and they allow 5.8 yards / play (25th). They can be overpowered on both the offensive and defensive lines. They give up the most yards after the catch in the NFL. Arizona looks like a team with an undersized, overpaid quarterback that plays for a coach that has lost the locker room. I can’t back a team like this as a favorite. Murray has also lost 3 consecutive games to the Seahawks over the past couple seasons.
Random Thoughts:
- What an amazing week 8! Let’s hope to keep that momentum going!
- I don’t blame you if you want to avoid fading the Bills and Chiefs in the same week… But I think the Jets defense is for real. I’d expect an intense atmosphere in New York, and if they can keep the game in shouting distance, it’s good enough for the cover. Zach Wilson was dreadful last week, but he hasn’t been making those type of mistakes this year. As for Kansas City, I think the Titans running game is good enough to keep this in the single digits. Kansas City hasn’t been great at covering these giant spreads at home.
- Hopefully, in three more weeks I can cash my Eagles over 9.5 wins ticket…. Never in a million years did I think it was possible to win that by Thanksgiving… but we shall see!
- Detroit probably has some value at +3.5 vs. the inept Packers. The Lions can’t win a game, but they can light up the scoreboard when they’re at home.
- The Ravens have been quietly stacking some wins together. I think if they can leave New Orleans with another one, they should be considered the 3rd best team in the AFC.
- Miami is another team that I was high on entering the season. I love their trade deadline acquisition in Bradley Chubb. He should give them some much needed pass rush help. However, I think this week is a dangerous game for them to lay 5 on the road.
Good luck everyone!
