“The Money Zone”: Games that have a “Calculated vs. Actual” difference of between 2 and 6 points are considered The Money Zone. Since 2015, games that fall within this tier have hit ~55% on a sample of over 700 games. I consider games in this tier to have a statistical advantage in the long run. This is a completely objective calculation that does not account for injuries, roster changes, weather etc. However, I believe the smartest investment is to make small bets on each one of these games and slowly increase them over time if you are successful.
|
Away |
Home |
Calculated Spread |
Actual Spread |
Calculated vs Actual |
Projected Winner ATS |
|
NY Giants |
Minnesota |
(9.33) |
(3.00) |
6.33 |
Minnesota |
|
Baltimore |
Cincinnati |
(5.57) |
(8.00) |
2.43 |
Baltimore |
|
Dallas |
Tampa Bay |
5.17 |
2.50 |
2.67 |
Dallas |
|
LA Chargers |
Jacksonville |
4.03 |
2.00 |
2.03 |
LA Chargers |
|
Miami |
Buffalo |
(12.33) |
(13.00) |
0.67 |
Miami |
|
Seattle |
San Francisco |
(10.00) |
(9.50) |
0.50 |
San Francisco |
**2022 Regular Season Money Zone Record 56-45 ATS (55.45%)**
Baltimore, Dallas & LA Chargers are Money Zone picks
“Shorestein Says” Picks of the Week: Each week I select between 3-5 of my favorite games and do additional analysis on them. I’ve highlighted the “Shorestein Says” picks of the week in yellow. Read below for my in-depth analysis. **Picks of the Week were 35-28 ATS (55.56% for 2022)**
Dallas -2.5 @ Tampa Bay: I think Dallas laying just 2.5 is a steal as they lineup against a Tampa Bay team that has underachieved all season long. Dallas’ poor performance against the Commanders has soured the betting public, while Tom Brady’s 400+ yard performance in week 17 has yielded a lot of confidence from betting markets. I think these combined factors are wild over reactions. Aside from the week 17 explosion by the Bucs offense, Tampa Bay’s production on that side of the ball was absent for the majority of the regular season. Here’s a snap shot of the Bucs offense from weeks 12-16, which I think is a more representative sample of what they are:
|
Wk# |
Opponent |
Points Scored |
Yards / Play |
Brady QB Rating |
|
12 |
Cleveland |
17.00 |
5.24 |
97.60 |
|
13 |
New Orleans |
17.00 |
4.79 |
84.00 |
|
14 |
San Francisco |
7.00 |
4.47 |
63.70 |
|
15 |
Cincinnati |
23.00 |
6.00 |
62.20 |
|
16 |
Arizona |
19.00 |
5.21 |
71.60 |
|
Avg. |
16.60 |
5.14 |
75.82 |
If you were to compare these to the season totals of the rest of the league, the points per game would rank them 32nd, Yards / Play would be 25th, and QB rating would be 31st. At the time of kickoff, each one of these games could have been considered a “must win” type game with playoff ramifications. I think it is far more likely to see a performance that mirrors the numbers from the chart above, than a performance that matches the production and execution that we saw in the Panthers Week 17 victory.
Dallas continues to be the best team in the NFL at forcing takeaways like they were in 2021. They average 1.9 turnovers forced per game. Tampa’s beat up offensive line needs to get creative to find an answer for Micah Parsons who will likely lineup in various spots throughout the night. Otherwise, Brady could be under fire all night long.
Dallas has killed themselves with turnovers. It’s no secret that Dak Prescott is among the league leaders in interceptions thrown. However, the Cowboys offense is much more explosive than Tampa’s. Since week 13, the Cowboys had scored 54, 27, 34, 40, and 27 before they laid an egg against their division-rival Commanders. If Dallas can simply score into the high 20’s, I think Tampa will have a hard time keeping pace. The once vaunted Bucs defense has struggled at times this season. In the past, teams wouldn’t even consider running against Tampa’s front 7, but this unit has allowed 4.5 yards per carry which puts them at 19th in the NFL. Their pass rush has also suffered without Shaquil Barrett as they rank just 16th in pressure % generated at 21.9%. I think the secondary will have its hands full with Cee Dee Lamb as he has produced at an elite level for much of the year.
Tampa will likely be the most heavily bet team by the public this week, but I think it’s an over reaction. People are expecting to see the Tom Brady of old, but they are more likely to see an old Tom Brady.
Baltimore +8.5 @ Cincinnati: This game is certainly priced as if Lamar Jackson is out. I’m backing the Ravens at this huge number in the 3rd matchup between division foes. I’d be stunned if the Ravens defense didn’t make this a competitive game. In the second half of the season, you could make a case that Baltimore had the best defense in the NFL. I think you should throw out last week’s results as Baltimore rested a wide variety of key players. The more accurate picture should be the matchup that took place in week 5. In this game, Baltimore was able to control the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. They ran effectively with JK Dobbins, and they forced joe Burrow into 7 bad throws (per pro football reference) which was the 2nd highest he had all season. Cincinnati is also going into this weekend without La’el Collins at offensive tackle. This is now the 3rd game that they will play without him, and I don’t think any team has been able to take advantage of it yet. Baltimore has the personnel to make this a problem with Justin Houston and Calais Campbell among others on the defensive line.
No team has been better with an underdog mentality. Baltimore is 13-3 ATS as an underdog since 2019, good for 81%+. John Harbaugh has thrived in this position throughout his tenure, and I expect this week to be no exception.
Tyler Huntley has been banged up as well with shoulder and wrist injuries. He needs to focus in and find Mark Andrews as much as he can in the passing game. In Andrews’ last 2 games against the Bengals he has combined for 16 catches on 20 targets and 2 touchdowns.
Lastly, how can I finish a Ravens writeup without mentioning Justin Tucker? Having the most reliable field goal kicker in NFL history certainly pays dividends in a TD+ spread game. If the Ravens defense plays as advertised, kicking a few field goals could play a huge role in covering the spread. The weather for Sunday looks like it will likely be played below freezing. Any conditions that could challenge the offenses should be considered a plus for Baltimore. I’ll take the Ravens in a cold, running type game as large underdogs just about every opportunity I get.
LA Chargers -2 @ Jacksonville: I think this game should see a lot of points scored. I’m leaning on the better quarterback at the moment whom I believe to be Justin Herbert. The Jaguars have made major strides this season, but I don’t think it is Trevor Lawrence’s time yet. Expect the Chargers’ Keenan Allen to have the biggest game of any wide receiver this weekend. Allen has amassed a ton of targets and yardage on the Chargers’ recent hot streak, and it is possible they play this game without Mike Williams. (See Bonus bet Below**) The Jaguars young defense has played well to close the season, but they have still shown vulnerabilities in the passing game. Jax ranks 22nd in yards allowed per pass attempt and have given up the 28th most yardage through the air in the NFL. The Chargers are expecting to get back Rashawn Slater on the offensive line who is the anchor of that unit. Herbert should get more time than he has been used to over the last month of the season.
The key for the Chargers is always how well they can hold up against the run. They have been one of the worst rush defenses for the past several years, but they should get some added reinforcements with Joey Bosa and Derwin James returning from injuries. Travis Etienne is likely in for a big day, but the best way for the Chargers to limit him could be by scoring into the 30’s. This would force the Jaguars into the passing game in order to keep pace. In this scenario, the Chargers’ pass rush could take over the game. Over the last 3 games, the Chargers pass rush has heated up. They have sacked opposing QB’s at a 14.29% rate, which is #1 in the NFL during that span.
I think the Chargers are the pick at anything under a FG.
Keenan Allen over 74.5 Receiving Yards (-120)
As I mentioned above, Allen has been on a tear since his return. Allen has exceeded 74 yards in 5 of his last 6 outings. He’s averaged 11.33 targets and 88.67 yards in these games. Allen’s elusiveness in any part of the field should keep him as a reliable option for Herbert in this game. Expect this number to rise if Mike Williams is ruled out. Fellow slot receivers Cee Dee Lamb and Amon-Ra St. Brown both had huge days against this Jaguars defense. St. Brown went for 114 yards while Lamb went for 126 yards. On the season, Keenan Allen has lined up in the slot on over 50% of his snaps. The Jags’ defense has benefited from the schedule as they have faced some of the weaker offenses in the NFL the last 3 weeks. They played the Jets, Texans, and Titans (2x) in 4 of the last 5 games. I think it will be somewhat of a shock to face a high powered offense led by Herbert.
Random Thoughts:
- I’m leaning 49ers if the line remains below 10. I think Seattle’s young offensive line is outmatched, and Christian McCaffery & Co. should run wild on the Seattle defense.
- Tua has officially been ruled out for the Dolphins. Watching Skylar Thompson has been like watching a high school team play. I can’t back the Dolphins on any number if he is lining up under the center.
- The Vikings haven’t been taken seriously by anyone this year. I think this has to be the softest 13 win team in the history of the NFL…. However, I think they can beat a young Giants team that probably isn’t quite ready for a playoff setting. I would fade the Hell out of Minnesota if they are able to advance to the divisional round.
Good Luck Everyone!
