“The Money Zone”: Games that have a “Calculated vs. Actual” difference of between 2 and 6 points are considered The Money Zone. Since 2015, games that fall within this tier have hit ~55% on a sample of over 700 games. I consider games in this tier to have a statistical advantage in the long run. This is a completely objective calculation that does not account for injuries, roster changes, weather etc. However, I believe the smartest investment is to make small bets on each one of these games and slowly increase them over time if you are successful.
|
Away |
Home |
Calculated Spread |
Actual Spread |
Calculated vs Actual |
Projected Winner ATS |
|
Minnesota |
Chicago |
0.30 |
7.50 |
7.20 |
Chicago |
|
Tampa Bay |
Atlanta |
3.53 |
(4.00) |
7.53 |
Tampa Bay |
|
Detroit |
Green Bay |
(2.87) |
(4.50) |
1.63 |
Detroit |
|
Kansas City |
Las Vegas |
7.93 |
9.50 |
1.57 |
Las Vegas |
|
New England |
Buffalo |
(9.03) |
(7.50) |
1.53 |
Buffalo |
|
Dallas |
Washington |
6.27 |
7.50 |
1.23 |
Washington |
|
LA Chargers |
Denver |
(0.07) |
1.00 |
1.07 |
Denver |
|
Cleveland |
Pittsburgh |
(2.27) |
(3.00) |
0.73 |
Cleveland |
|
Baltimore |
Cincinnati |
(7.73) |
(7.00) |
0.73 |
Cincinnati |
|
Arizona |
San Francisco |
(13.47) |
(14.00) |
0.53 |
Arizona |
|
Tennessee |
Jacksonville |
(6.50) |
(6.00) |
0.50 |
Jacksonville |
|
Houston |
Indianapolis |
(3.00) |
(2.50) |
0.50 |
Indianapolis |
|
NY Giants |
Philadelphia |
(14.43) |
(14.00) |
0.43 |
Philadelphia |
|
NY Jets |
Miami |
1.37 |
1.00 |
0.37 |
NY Jets |
|
LA Rams |
Seattle |
(6.23) |
(6.50) |
0.27 |
LA Rams |
|
Carolina |
New Orleans |
(3.60) |
(3.50) |
0.10 |
New Orleans |
**2022 Regular Season Money Zone Record 56-45 ATS (55.45%)**
No Money Zone Picks for Week 18
“Shorestein Says” Picks of the Week: Each week I select between 3-5 of my favorite games and do additional analysis on them. I’ve highlighted the “Shorestein Says” picks of the week in yellow. Read below for my in-depth analysis. **Picks of the Week are 35-28 ATS (55.56% for 2022)**
Detroit +4.5 @ Green Bay: I think the Lions are the better bet in a game with playoff implications between division rivals. I’m surprised to write this, but I think the Goff-led Lions team is better suited for a cold weather, run oriented game. Detroit’s offensive line is in a position to dominate the Packers’ 27th ranked rushing defense in a game that will likely be played at below freezing temperatures. When the Lions decide to throw, I think they have a major advantage with Amon-Ra St. Brown in the quick passing game. Jaire Alexander is a weapon on the outside at corner, but I don’t think Green Bay can match up with St. Brown in the slot and in the middle of the defense. Again, I think the Lions quick passing game will prove to be more effective in a game at lower temperatures.
The Lions defense has been under fire for much of the season, but on their current hot streak, they have played much better. They held the Bills, Jaguars, and Vikings to 28, 14, and 23 points. Two of those games were blowout wins for the Lions, while the only loss was a competitive game on Thanksgiving to Buffalo. On the season, Detroit has allowed a 26th ranked passer rating of 94.8, but that number has been much improved over the last 3 games, allowing just an 85.5. Here is a snapshot of how the defense has performed during their hot streak:
|
Opponent |
Turnovers Forced |
Points Allowed |
Result |
|
Giants |
3.00 |
18.00 |
W |
|
Buffalo |
1.00 |
28.00 |
L |
|
Jacksonville |
1.00 |
14.00 |
W |
|
Minnesota |
2.00 |
23.00 |
W |
|
NY Jets |
1.00 |
17.00 |
W |
|
Carolina |
– |
37.00 |
L |
|
Chicago |
2.00 |
10.00 |
W |
I think the key here has certainly been their ability to force turnovers. This has a lot to do with the emergence of Aiden Hutchinson and the pass rush. Over the last 3 games, Detroit has a 12.36% sack rate, which is good for third in the NFL. I think this has turned around the defense, and made them a much more viable opponent.
Rodgers and the Packers are hot, but I think the Lions have a great chance to keep this game close enough to cover the +4.5.
Cleveland +3 @ Pittsburgh: I think the Browns have value as a FG underdog in a similar game in the AFC North. Pittsburgh’s playoff hopes are unlikely, but still potentially alive with help from other AFC teams. However, I think the Browns would love to play spoiler in this game, and should have a great opportunity to win a low-scoring defensive battle. The Browns defense has been equally as impressive as the Steelers’ defense has:
|
Opponent |
Points Allowed |
Passer Rating Allowed |
|
Houston |
14.00 |
53.40 |
|
Bengals |
23.00 |
85.30 |
|
Ravens |
3.00 |
54.60 |
|
Saints |
17.00 |
44.30 |
|
Commanders |
10.00 |
31.40 |
|
Averages |
13.40 |
53.80 |
Over the last 5, the Browns have allowed an average passer rating of under 54, and less than 14 points per game. With the ability that they have with Nick Chubb and the running game, pairing that with a suffocating defense is a formula to win in December/January. Deshaun Watson has performed well below expectations so far, but last week he started to show flashes of explosiveness in the passing game. He threw for 3 TD’s and 0 INT’s en route to a victory over Washington. I think if he’s able to play with anywhere close to that level of efficiency, he should put the Browns in position to win on Sunday.
Kenny Pickett came up with some clutch, winning drives over the past two weeks. However, there were large stretches of both games, that the Steelers offense remained stagnant. Najee Harris has certainly looked more explosive, but I think this offense struggles to get chunk plays. I think this game has a blueprint of a Steelers/Ravens game, and the favorable play will be with the underdog. Last season, the Steelers defeated the Browns to propel them to the playoffs. I think this will be on the minds of the Browns this year, and it will not happen again.
Random Thoughts:
- As I mentioned in the email, obviously Damar Hamlin’s health comes before everything else…. Gotta hope that he pulls through and is able to make a full recovery. Heart-breaking situation.
As for the football….
- Last week of the regular season is always tough. You can never tell which teams will play through to the end, even if there isn’t anything to play for.
- I recommend scaling back bets, and proceeding with caution until wildcard weekend.
- I’d expect KC and Philly to take care of business and go for the #1 seeds. Both however have huge spreads.
- Jacksonville looks like the play to make. Trevor Lawrence has really been excellent as of late, and the Titans season lies in the hands of a man that was signed a week ago….
- Dolphins have major questions at quarterback… Skylar Thompson may be one of the worst quarterbacks I’ve seen in awhile. I can’t trust him if he gets a go against a good Jets defense.
- I’d probably lean on Baltimore with such a large spread against Cincinnati, but it’s possible that this game doesn’t mean much to them.
Well that’s a wrap on another regular season… Chalk up 2022 as another profitable year!
|
Annual Performance of “Shorestein Says” Money Zone | |||
|
2015 |
72.00 |
62.00 |
53.73% |
|
2016 |
70.00 |
56.00 |
55.56% |
|
2017 |
65.00 |
48.00 |
57.52% |
|
2018 |
65.00 |
51.00 |
56.03% |
|
2019 |
43.00 |
57.00 |
43.00% |
|
2020 |
61.00 |
52.00 |
53.98% |
|
2021 |
66.00 |
58.00 |
53.23% |
|
2022 |
56.00 |
45.00 |
55.45% |
