“The Money Zone”: Games that have a “Calculated vs. Actual” difference of between 2 and 6 points are considered The Money Zone. Since 2015, games that fall within this tier have hit ~55% on a sample of over 800 games. I consider games in this tier to have a statistical advantage in the long run. This is a completely objective calculation that does not account for injuries, roster changes, weather etc. However, I believe the smartest investment is to make small bets on each one of these games and slowly increase them over time if you are successful.
|
Away |
Home |
Calculated Spread |
Actual Spread |
Calculated vs Actual |
Projected Winner ATS |
|
Las Vegas |
Denver |
(9.60) |
(3.50) |
6.10 |
Denver |
|
Arizona |
Washington |
(9.73) |
(7.00) |
2.73 |
Washington |
|
Tampa Bay |
Minnesota |
(3.57) |
(6.00) |
2.43 |
Tampa Bay |
|
San Francisco |
Pittsburgh |
(0.43) |
2.00 |
2.43 |
Pittsburgh |
|
LA Rams |
Seattle |
(2.33) |
(4.50) |
2.17 |
LA Rams |
|
Detroit |
Kansas City |
(4.43) |
(6.50) |
2.07 |
Detroit |
|
Cincinnati |
Cleveland |
4.53 |
2.50 |
2.03 |
Cincinnati |
|
Tennessee |
New Orleans |
(4.93) |
(3.50) |
1.43 |
New Orleans |
|
Philadelphia |
New England |
4.87 |
3.50 |
1.37 |
Philadelphia |
|
Miami |
LA Chargers |
(1.17) |
(2.50) |
1.33 |
Miami |
|
Dallas |
NY Giants |
2.27 |
3.50 |
1.23 |
NY Giants |
|
Carolina |
Atlanta |
(2.00) |
(3.00) |
1.00 |
Carolina |
|
Houston |
Baltimore |
(8.83) |
(9.50) |
0.67 |
Houston |
|
Green Bay |
Chicago |
(2.03) |
(2.50) |
0.47 |
Green Bay |
|
Jacksonville |
Indianapolis |
4.27 |
4.50 |
0.23 |
Indianapolis |
|
Buffalo |
NY Jets |
1.33 |
1.50 |
0.17 |
NY Jets |
Money Zone picks for Week 1 are Washington, Tampa, Pittsburgh, LA Rams, Detroit, & Cincy.
**Money Zone picks were 56-45 ATS in 2022 (55.45%)**
“Shorestein Says” Picks of the Week: Each week I select between 3-5 of my favorite games and do additional analysis on them. I’ve highlighted the “Shorestein Says” picks of the week in yellow. Read below for my in-depth analysis. **Picks of the Week were 40-30 ATS (57.14% for 2022)**
Detroit +6.5 @ Kansas City: It’s rare for me to fade Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs in any football game, but I believe there is some value in the underdog Lions at a pretty big number out of the gate. Although I expect the Chiefs to ultimately retain their Super Bowl ceiling, I would not be surprised to see some struggles from them in September. Kansas City will be starting 2 brand new tackles on the outside in Juwaan Taylor and Donovon Smith. The hole left by Orlando Brown will be a significant one that will likely take some time to back fill. Rebuilding an offensive line requires time and continuity that typically comes from game experience. The 2022 Bengals are a great comp for this concept as they reconstructed 4 of their 5 starting positions from the previous year. Eventually, they finished the season as a strong unit, but the way they started was nothing short of disastrous. Here were some numbers that show how much they struggled to begin the season:
|
Opponent |
Pressure % |
Sacks |
Result |
|
Steelers |
21.50% |
7.00 |
L |
|
Dallas |
28.90% |
6.00 |
L |
If you read my NFC North Future analysis, you’ll recall that I’m bullish on the Lions. I really liked the additions that they made in the secondary including 2 new corners that should draw starting spots in Emmanuel Mosley (if he’s healthy) and Cam Sutton. CJ Gardner-Johnson also comes over from Philly and should immediately improve a secondary that struggled mightily against the pass in 2022. 2nd year players Aiden Hutchinson and James Houston emerged in the second half of 2022 and could really test the new KC tackles on the edge. Mahomes is by far the best quarterback in the league, but he will face challenges filling the voids left by departing receivers Mecole Hardman and JuJu Smith-Schuster. I don’t think we’ll see the full force of the Kansas City offense in week 1. Therefore, the touchdown+ spread may be a tall task to cover.
On the other side of the ball, Jared Goff should have ample time to throw. Chiefs All-World defender Chris Jones still hasn’t reported to the team, and his likelihood of suiting up in week 1 looks more doubtful by the day. If he does report prior to the game, it’s hard to believe he’ll be anywhere close to midseason form given how much time he’s missed on the practice field. Detroit’s offensive line should remain the anchor of this team this season. I’m excited to see how OC Ben Johnson incorporates his newest weapon, Jahmyr Gibbs. If you’re unfamiliar with Gibbs, he’s expected to be a dynamic receiver out of the backfield comparable to the likes of Alvin Kamara. Detroit also added more talent at the tight end position in Sam La Porta through the draft. Goff should have more explosiveness in his targets in the passing game to pair with Amon-Ra St. Brown.
In summary, this game has the feeling that it’s far more important to the Lions than the Chiefs. Detroit enters the year with its highest hopes in over a decade, while Kansas City will likely take some time to build up momentum for their inevitable post season run. The Lions will be the more excited team to start the season fast, and I think they have significant value as a large underdog. I was lucky enough to get them at +7 on Caesar’s sports book over the Summer, but would still be very comfortable backing them at +6.5.
Arizona @ Washington -7: I think you should get ready to see me fade the Cardinals quite a bit this season. It feels like the tanking process has already begun for this Arizona team as they parted ways with talented defender Isaiah Simmons and veteran QB Colt McCoy within the last week. Kyler Murray will open the year on the PUP list which will keep him out of action until week 5 at a minimum. In the interim, the Cardinals will rely on rookie QB Clayton Tune or young journeyman Josh Dobbs. Regardless of who gets the call for the Cardinals in week 1, I think they will be in big trouble.
The Cardinals offensive line could be in for a very long day as they line up against one of the best defensive lines in football for the Commanders. Washington finished with the 6th best sack rate and the 10th best pressure percentage in 2022, and now they bring back a healthy Chase Young who should be their best pass rusher. The Cardinals have one of the worst interior offensive lines and will start a rookie at tackle opposite DJ Humphries. Whether it’s the rookie Tune or Josh Dobbs with about 2 weeks of team experience, I think this Cardinals offense is in major trouble. If the Cardinals sniff 20 points, I’d be stunned.
The Commanders’ offense on the other hand, appears to be setup for success under new OC Eric Bienemy who comes over from Kansas City to run the show. 2nd year QB Sam Howell has gotten off to a promising start to the preseason and appears to have an instant rapport with Jahan Dotson. I believe the Commanders’ biggest weakness is at offensive line, but I think the anemic Cardinals’ defense won’t have the ability to exploit it. The Cardinals look to have the worst front 7 in the NFL, as they struggled in virtually all areas in 2022. On top of that, they lost thier 3 leading pass rushers from a season ago (JJ Watt, Markus Golden, and Zach Allen). The Commanders could simply pound the ball on the ground to Brian Robinson and lean on their defense if they choose to. I don’t expect to see a lot of resistance from this porous Cardinals defense.
This may seem like a huge spread for a middle of the pack Commanders team, but Arizona is appropriately priced as the worst team in the NFL.
Cincinnati -2.5 @ Cleveland: Joe Burrow’s struggles against the Browns have been well documented. It’s no secret out there that Burrow is 1-4 against the Browns including 0-3 on the road. I think Burrow and the Bengals finally get over their Cleveland slump and win in week 1.
This game had been sitting at -2.5 for much of the Summer until Burrow was carted off the practice field about a month ago. The line immediately went down to -1, but retreated back to -2.5 once Burrow returned to practice. Quarterbacks like Dak Prescott and Aaron Rodgers have played through similar injuries that have occurred during the season. By the time this game kicks off, Burrow should have had about 6 weeks rest/rehab before returning. I think that’s well within reach for him to be close to 100%. I’m willing to take the chance and assume that this injury will be a non-issue for a QB that runs just a few times per game.
Coming back to the matchup at hand, I am still not a full believer in Deshaun Watson yet. He was nowhere near the player that he was in the past in 2022, and I think facing a tough Bengals defense is a dangerous place to start. Cincy finished the season with the 3rd best pass defense in 2022 with a defensive passer rating of 81.50. Watson struggled mightily in his matchup with the Bengals late in December as he completed just 61% of his passes and finished with a 79 QB rating. The Bengals also have an excellent rush defense as they allowed just 4.1 yards per career last season. Watson has been up and down in his limited action during the preseason, and he reportedly threw 3 interceptions in joint practices with the Eagles. While it’s hard to gauge the importance of joint practices, I think it shows that there is still concern that his poor play from last year could linger into this season.
Looking back at the Bengals offense, the key to success against Cleveland always starts with blocking Myles Garrett. I think by bringing in Orlando Brown at tackle, they finally have a viable matchup to keep him under control. Garrett has sacked Burrow 11 times in the 6 games that they have played. Brown should immediately be an upgrade at tackle and keep Garrett contained much better. Aside from Garrett, I think the Browns defense is largely made up of average pieces. Denzel Ward has been an effective corner on the outside, but I think Ja’Marr Chase or Tee Higgins can certainly have success against him. The Browns also had problems against the run in 2022 as they gave up 4.7 yards per rush which was 25th ranked in the NFL.
Lastly, Cleveland was horrible in the kicking game last season. Don’t underestimate the importance of having a kicker in a competitive, divisional game. Cade York was recently replaced by Dustin Hopkins for Cleveland. Hopkins was effective last year as a short term fill-in for the Chargers, but prior to that he flamed out in Washington in 2021. If there’s a game winning kick to be made, I’d certainly have more confidence in Evan McPherson.
LA Rams +4.5 @ Seattle: Seattle’s getting a lot of love as the spread started close to a TD and has started to drift back towards the Rams. The Rams have very low expectations to start the season, but I think it’s important to keep in mind that LA still has elite talent at arguably the 4 most vital areas of the game: Quarterback, wide receiver, pass rusher, and coach/play-caller. The remaining roster pieces leave a lot to be desired on the Rams side, but I think strong performances from their key veterans should keep the game competitive against a divisional foe that they’ve been successful against in the past.
Seattle failed twice as a heavy favorite to cover against the Rams in 2022 even with John Wolford and a newly signed Baker Mayfield under center. The Seahawks were also lucky enough to avoid Cooper Kupp and Aaron Donald in both games as well. Kupp should continue to be a thorn in the side of the Seahawk secondary, as he should work the slot and the middle of the field. The strength of Seattle’s defense is on the outside corners in my opinion, so this particular matchup should favor Los Angeles. I’d expect strong performances from both Kupp and tight end Tyler Higbee.
Seattle also failed to address its porous run defense in 2022. At 4.9 yards allowed per rush, the Seattle defense ranked just 26th against the run, and chose to add another cornerback and wide receiver with their high 1st round draft assets. Cam Akers had two very strong showings against this defense last season despite having virtually no threat of a passing game to help. The Rams rushed for over 300 yards combined in the 2 contests of 2022. I’d expect Akers to have another effective game rushing as Sean McVay has had extra time to prepare his offense on opening week.
Defensively, the Rams will have their work cut out for them in the secondary as they attempt to slow down DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. It looks like they will avoid facing newly acquired Jaxon Smith-Njigba in the slot. I believe the key in this game will be for the Rams interior pass rush to dominate. Geno Smith had a career best season in 2022, but history tells me that he’s more likely to regress in this season.
Random Thoughts:
- I think the trap is officially set on the 49ers in week 1. They face a tough Steelers front 7, with some new faces on the offensive line opposite Trent Williams. I continue to say that Brock Purdy still hasn’t faced a lot of adversity (aside from the NFC Championship) as he should face a real test and an aggressive defense. Nick Bosa was MIA for most of camp, so I think it’s safe to say he won’t be anywhere close to being fully ready to play. I was lucky enough to get this at +3 over the Summer, but I still think it’s a viable option at +2. I think the strategy might be to wait until closer to kickoff to see if +3 comes back as an option.
- As crazy as it sounds I’m also a big fan of Tampa Bay as a large underdog. Minnesota had one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL in 2022 and barely did a thing to address it. They also had an unprecedented amount of 1 score victories last year. Everyone has written off the Bucs for 2023, but their talent on defense remains. They also have 2 skilled receivers that should be effective against a porous pass defense. Even Baker Mayfield should up numbers against the Vikings.
- Chicago/Green Bay looks like a coin flip to me. I’d prefer to see Jordan Love play a few real games before I jump to judgment.
- I’d lean Tennessee if I had to choose. Vrabel’s track record as an underdog is phenomenal.
- The Patriots offensive line has been a disaster all Summer. They’ve cycled in body after body, and they’ve had injuries everywhere. The Eagles are the last team that they would want to see on opening day with that explosive pass rush. Yet, the spread continues to come toward the Patriots…. This is a head-scratcher for me. I’ll pass.
- Harbaugh and the Ravens have been a great week 1 heavy favorite over the years. I’m not sure what to think this year, however.
We’re officially back! Be on the lookout for a prop bet or two in addition to my new Same Game Parlay release! Coming soon….
Good luck!!!!
