“The Money Zone”: Games that have a “Calculated vs. Actual” difference of between 2 and 6 points are considered The Money Zone. Since 2015, games that fall within this tier have hit ~55% on a sample of over 800 games. I consider games in this tier to have a statistical advantage in the long run. This is a completely objective calculation that does not account for injuries, roster changes, weather etc. However, I believe the smartest investment is to make small bets on each one of these games and slowly increase them over time if you are successful.
|
Away |
Home |
Calculated Spread |
Actual Spread |
Calculated vs Actual |
Projected Winner ATS |
|
Cleveland |
Pittsburgh |
(2.40) |
2.00 |
4.40 |
Pittsburgh |
|
Las Vegas |
Buffalo |
(12.77) |
(8.50) |
4.27 |
Buffalo |
|
LA Chargers |
Tennessee |
(1.27) |
3.00 |
4.27 |
Tennessee |
|
Minnesota |
Philadelphia |
(9.70) |
(6.00) |
3.70 |
Philadelphia |
|
Green Bay |
Atlanta |
3.57 |
1.50 |
2.07 |
Green Bay |
|
Kansas City |
Jacksonville |
5.53 |
3.50 |
2.03 |
Kansas City |
|
Miami |
New England |
0.77 |
2.50 |
1.73 |
New England |
|
Indianapolis |
Houston |
(0.13) |
1.50 |
1.63 |
Houston |
|
Seattle |
Detroit |
(3.93) |
(5.50) |
1.57 |
Seattle |
|
New Orleans |
Carolina |
1.93 |
3.50 |
1.57 |
Carolina |
|
San Francisco |
LA Rams |
6.50 |
8.00 |
1.50 |
LA Rams |
|
NY Giants |
Arizona |
6.13 |
5.00 |
1.13 |
NY Giants |
|
Baltimore |
Cincinnati |
(4.50) |
(3.50) |
1.00 |
Cincinnati |
|
NY Jets |
Dallas |
(8.30) |
(9.00) |
0.70 |
NY Jets |
|
Washington |
Denver |
(3.87) |
(3.50) |
0.37 |
Denver |
|
Chicago |
Tampa Bay |
(2.87) |
(3.00) |
0.13 |
Chicago |
Money Zone picks for Week 2 are Pittsburgh, Buffalo, Tennessee, Philly, Green Bay, & Kansas City
**Money Zone picks are 3-3 ATS in 2023 (50.00%)**
“Shorestein Says” Picks of the Week: Each week I select between 3-5 of my favorite games and do additional analysis on them. I’ve highlighted the “Shorestein Says” picks of the week in yellow. Read below for my in-depth analysis. **Picks of the Week were 2-2 ATS (50.00% for 2023)**
Kansas City -3.5 @ Jacksonville: Kansas City is a no brainer bounce back candidate for me in week 2. I think you’ll probably see a lot of overreactions to the poor performance of their wide receiver group in week 1. However, the wide receiver group from last year’s Super Bowl team was average at best. In the AFC Championship, you had a limping Smith-Schuster, an in-experienced Skyy Moore, the same mediocre Valdez-Scantling, and Marcus Kemp catching passes in critical moments. Patrick Mahomes only needs a reliable Travis Kelce, and he’ll find a way to make it work on the outside with just about anyone else. According to most reports, it sounds like Kelce will be close to full strength by the time this game kicks off. I think this week the Chiefs offense rebounds with a huge performance against a Jacksonville defense that Mahomes dismantled through 1.5 games last season before he injured his ankle. Here were his numbers last season vs. Jax:
|
Week # |
QB Rating |
Points Scored |
Yards / Attempt |
|
10 |
129.60 |
27.00 |
9.46 |
|
Divisional Rd |
112.50 |
27.00 |
6.50 |
The concerns that I had about the newly constructed offensive line look to be a non-factor. I think Juwaan Taylor has fit right in and locked in an excellent performance vs. Aiden Hutchinson and the Lions pass rush. Kansas City also dominated the Jags in the running game last season. They rushed for a combined 299 yards in the two games. I think the combination of Joe Thuney and Creed Humphrey has given them a huge edge in this matchup which I believe will continue. Look for a productive day from Pacheco if KC decides to run more.
As for those mediocre receivers I mentioned at the top, I think it’s impossible for them not to play better this week. Specifically, I think Andy Reid will look to do more creative things with Skyy Moore and Kadarius Toney. I think they’ll make every effort to get Toney involved early to get his confidence back up after his horrible showing in the opener.
Defensively, I was impressed with the Chiefs defense and that was without Chris Jones. Jones has since returned to the lineup and he should be back in action this weekend in a limited role at a minimum. Kansas City held an explosive Lions offense relatively in check, until they were eventually overwhelmed by the Detroit offensive line. Luckily in this matchup they go against an inferior Jaguar offensive line that could end up being the Achilles’ heal of this Jacksonville team. Trevor Lawrence showed last week how explosive this offense can be, but I think he’ll face a much tougher test against an aggressive Chiefs defense.
Unfortunately, as I am writing this post, the spread jumped up to -3.5. KC is still one of my favorite plays of the week, but I think it’s possible you could get a better number closer to kickoff.
Cleveland @ Pittsburgh +2.5: I completely missed the mark on Pittsburgh last week as they were grossly mismatched against San Francisco in Week 1. Cleveland, on the other hand, took advantage of what looked to be a rusty and limited by injury Joe Burrow. I think this is a classic over reaction to week 1 in which we saw the Browns with a blowout win, and the Steelers take a blowout loss. On the look ahead lines, Pittsburgh was pegged as a slight favorite and the line has swung in the Browns’ direction.
I think something still doesn’t look right with Deshaun Watson. I don’t think he played with a lot of confidence. I think he mostly benefited from a better running game and significantly better field position as the game went on. Watson will likely be at a huge disadvantage in this matchup as he lost his starting right tackle Jack Conklin for the season. I think you’ll see the Steelers attack that side all day with TJ Watt and a lot of different blitz packages. Watson hasn’t fared well against the Steelers in his career as he has lost both games at Heinz field and is a combined 1-3 vs. Pittsburgh all time. In the season finale last year, Watson was sacked an astounding 7 times vs. this Steelers defense. The Steelers have also generally performed well against Nick Chubb. Of his 9 career games in this matchup, he’s exceeded the 100 yard mark just twice.
Pittsburgh should be in a great position to bounce back in week 2 as they take on a familiar divisional foe. AFC North games seem to follow the same flow, as they are generally more hard-fought defensive games. I almost always lean on the underdogs in these situations. Pittsburgh is far more comfortable playing in ugly games like this.
The Steelers offense will have to take a step forward this week. I think Kenny Pickett will look to avoid Denzel Ward. So whether that’s Allen Robinson or George Pickens who gets the more favorable look on Martin Emerson, they should be in for a solid performance. Diontae Johnson is looking like he won’t be available, but it appears Pat Freirmuth will be in the picture. I think Pickett still has more than enough weapons at his disposal to be effective in what will likely be a lower scoring game. Pickett had several turnovers last week vs. the Niners. If he’s able to regain his form from the second half of last season, the Steelers should be well positioned to win on Sunday.
Green Bay -1.5 @ Atlanta: I have much more confidence in Jordan Love than I do in Desmond Ridder. It’s dangerous to make a sweeping generalization after 1 week, but I think Love looks the part. I thought that he showed a lot of growth in his brief substitution in Philly last season, and I believe that he built on that confidence in the preseason and in week 1. Love looks like the far more developed passer right now, and I think the Packers hold advantages over Atlanta on their defense and offensive line.
The Falcons defense took advantage of an inexperienced Bryce Young last week. However, I don’t believe they’ll be able to replicate that in week 2. In 2022, Atlanta had the 29th ranked defense in terms of passer rating allowed. Their biggest problem last season was generating pressure on opposing QB’s and I don’t believe they’ve done much to change that. At 14.6%, the Falcons ranked dead last in QB pressures in 2022. The Falcons again chose to draft offensive players with their early draft capital, while they signed aging veterans on their last leg to address their defensive needs. While I think Bijan Robinson is a very dynamic player, I think he is redundant to what the Falcons already did well. At this stage, Bud Dupree and Calais Campbell are not the players that they were earlier in their careers.
If Aaron Jones is unable to suit up for the Packers, I have the utmost confidence in AJ Dillon to fill his role. Green Bay’s offensive line remains a strong unit as Bahktiari has returned to the field. Hopefully Christian Watson can also come back from injury to give this wide receiver group some more explosiveness. Regardless, I think Green Bay should be in a great spot to score well into the 20’s.
The Falcons look to have some advantages over Green Bay in the ground game, but the Packers showed last week that they can hold their own against rushing offenses, as they limited Fields’ and the Bears to a mediocre day. Despite the Packers struggles stopping the run in 2022, they did manage to hold Saquan Barkley, Derrick Henry, and Dalvin Cook all to below average games last season. I think one dimensional teams like the Falcons won’t have the same benefits over the Green Bay defense which is still immensely talented at all 3 levels.
LA Chargers @ Tennessee +3: I’m leaning on Mike Vrabel’s Titans to bounce back in week 2 as a home underdog. The Titans have been a cover machine against the spread in underdog situations in the Vrabel era. Despite their struggles in 2022, they still posted a 5-3 record ATS 62.50% as a dog. Going back to 2020, this team is now 15-8 ATS as an underdog (65.20%) which is one of the top marks in the NFL.
Aside from the trends, I think this is a prototypical mismatch with the Titans ground game vs. the Chargers anemic run defense. The Chargers run defense has been a nightmare for several years now, and I think the holes in the unit remain. Here is how they have fared against the run over the last couple seasons:
|
Season |
Yards Allowed / Rush |
Rank |
|
2022 |
5.40 |
32nd |
|
2021 |
4.60 |
29th |
Henry ran for over a hundred yards in last season’s matchup and averaged over 5 yards per carry. While the Titans lost by a FG (on the road), they did so in large part because Tannehill injured his ankle early in the game. The Chargers pulled out a game winning FG as time expired on the final drive. The Titans defense largely kept Herbert in check as he was sacked 3 times and threw 2 costly interceptions. The wildcard for this weekend could be the status of Austin Ekeler. I believe he is the engine to the Chargers offense, and he left last Sunday’s game with an ankle injury. If Ekeler is limited or out for the Chargers, I think that puts them at a major disadvantage.
Tannehill was bad in week 1 with multiple interceptions. I think that’s pretty out of character for him as he generally plays well as a game manager and typically avoids turnovers. The Chargers secondary was scorched for nearly 500 passing yards last week. I think Deandre Hopkins should also get some opportunities when the Titans decide to pass.
Random Thoughts:
- Wasn’t the best Week 1 as picks of the week and money zone selections split 50/50. However, if you played the AJ Brown prop bet + the SGP’s, you should have yielded a profit.
- I think both the Eagles and Bills win big this week. My feelings on Minnesota are well documented, and I think Philly should steamroll that soft defense. The Raiders I don’t believe have any answers for the Diggs/Allen combination.
- I liked how Anthony Richardson looked. Seems to have some juice. I think the Colts are an intriguing play. Lean Indy.
- Baltimore as a FG+ dog has to always earn consideration.
- It was so frustrating to see Rodgers go down on the opening drive Monday Night. So much drama and hype around the Jets for this season will largely all be voided.
- The Giants were a joke on prime time week 1. They should get their legs back under them against the worst team in football.
- Patriots defense will get a chance to prove if they’re for real as they go against a red hot Dolphins offense. Keep in mind that the Patriots have still never beaten Tua.
**As an aside, I’ve had multiple people say that they are having issues receiving my emails….. Make sure to check my site multiple times before Sunday. Generally, my ATS picks will come out Wednesday night, Props + SGP’s will follow on Friday or Saturdays**
Good luck!!!!
