“The Money Zone”: Games that have a “Calculated vs. Actual” difference of between 2 and 6 points are considered The Money Zone. Since 2015, games that fall within this tier have hit ~55% on a sample of over 800 games. I consider games in this tier to have a statistical advantage in the long run. This is a completely objective calculation that does not account for injuries, roster changes, weather etc. However, I believe the smartest investment is to make small bets on each one of these games and slowly increase them over time if you are successful.
|
Away |
Home |
Calculated Spread |
Actual Spread |
Calculated vs Actual |
Projected Winner ATS |
|
LA Rams |
Cincinnati |
(9.50) |
(2.00) |
7.50 |
Cincinnati |
|
Pittsburgh |
Las Vegas |
3.67 |
(2.50) |
6.17 |
Pittsburgh |
|
Dallas |
Arizona |
16.27 |
12.50 |
3.77 |
Dallas |
|
Atlanta |
Detroit |
(6.67) |
(3.00) |
3.67 |
Detroit |
|
Tennessee |
Cleveland |
(0.17) |
(3.50) |
3.33 |
Tennessee |
|
Houston |
Jacksonville |
(6.67) |
(9.50) |
2.83 |
Houston |
|
Carolina |
Seattle |
(3.47) |
(6.00) |
2.53 |
Carolina |
|
LA Chargers |
Minnesota |
(2.40) |
(0.50) |
1.90 |
Minnesota |
|
New Orleans |
Green Bay |
(3.63) |
(2.00) |
1.63 |
Green Bay |
|
Indianapolis |
Baltimore |
(9.30) |
(8.00) |
1.30 |
Baltimore |
|
Buffalo |
Washington |
5.33 |
6.50 |
1.17 |
Washington |
|
Denver |
Miami |
(5.33) |
(6.50) |
1.17 |
Denver |
|
NY Giants |
San Francisco |
(9.97) |
(10.50) |
0.53 |
NY Giants |
|
Chicago |
Kansas City |
(12.83) |
(12.50) |
0.33 |
Kansas City |
|
Philadelphia |
Tampa Bay |
5.77 |
5.50 |
0.27 |
Philadelphia |
|
New England |
NY Jets |
2.40 |
2.50 |
0.10 |
NY Jets |
Money Zone picks for Week 3 are Dallas, Detroit, Tennessee, Houston, & Carolina
**Money Zone picks are 7-4 ATS in 2023 (63.64%)**
“Shorestein Says” Picks of the Week: Each week I select between 3-5 of my favorite games and do additional analysis on them. I’ve highlighted the “Shorestein Says” picks of the week in yellow. Read below for my in-depth analysis. **Picks of the Week were 5-3 ATS (62.50% for 2023)**
Dallas -12 @ Arizona: Honestly, I’m not sure there’s a number that I wouldn’t bet Dallas at this week. I firmly believe the disastrous collapse that Arizona went through last week will have lingering effects into Week 3. The talent gap between the two rosters is Grand Canyon-like, I couldn’t help but slide in an Arizona reference there…..
The Cardinals have played to their best abilities in the first two weeks as they were in competitive games against teams of the bottom tier of the NFC East. I think the combination of the shock of last week, and the reality setting in that they are probably the worst team in the NFL should make this game a blow out. Dallas has a far more advanced passing attack than what they’ve seen so far, as Cee Dee Lamb and Dak Prescott put on a show against one of the better defenses in the NFL last week. Once Daniel Jones got rolling, the Cardinals had no answers for a pedestrian Giants passing game. The Cowboys should pick up right where the Giants left off as the Cardinals will continue to play without Budda Baker, their best defensive player. Tony Pollard should rack up some yards in the second half running the ball as I think you’ll see the Cardinals defense lose faith.
I don’t see the Cardinals getting to double digits in this game. Arizona was fortunate enough to have defensive touchdowns in both games so far. They have even gotten favorable production from James Conner and the running game. However, they simply haven’t seen the dynamic Dallas pass rush yet. Micah Parsons is playing at an MVP level, and I don’t believe the Cardinals have the resources on the offensive line to slow down the tandem of Parsons and Lawrence. It’s hard to envision a scenario where Arizona can maintain drives with its running game. Dallas is averaging a crazy 3.5 turnovers forced through the first two weeks. If Joshua Dobbs is forced to throw, I think Dallas should be in line to force some more.
Another factor that I like in this game is if Dobbs is ineffective early, I think it’s possible we see rookie Clayton Tune take over at quarterback. I think a rookie making his first appearance against this Cowboys defense could help protect against a garbage time backdoor cover.
Tennessee +3.5 @ Cleveland: I’m sticking with 2 themes that got me wins last week. Backing Mike Vrabel as an underdog and fading the Deshaun Watson offense as favorites. I think these are two teams that have a lot of similarities. Both have effective defenses generated by strength in the front seven, and both offenses are built around power running games. With the devastating injury suffered by Nick Chubb, I don’t think Cleveland is nearly as dynamic on the ground. Regardless, I believe the Titans have the best run defense in the NFL. Right now, they’re holding opposing offenses to below 3 yards per carry that ranks them #1, right where they left off in 2022. Tennessee is often vulnerable to strong passing games, but Deshaun Watson simply hasn’t played well since joining the Browns. Looking at advanced metrics, here is how Watson has performed:
|
Season |
EPA / Play |
Success Rate |
Expected Comp % |
|
2023 |
(30th) -.20 |
(25th) 40.20% |
(32nd) 62.30% |
|
2022 |
(35th of 42) |
(34th of 42) |
(23rd of 42) |
Very ugly numbers have continued into 2023, especially for someone who is paid as one of the highest QB’s in the entire league. I think the Titans will be willing to take their chances with Watson throwing the ball and they will eliminate the run threat.
On the other side, Ryan Tannehill played a very effective game last week vs. the Chargers who have a capable pass rush. Tannehill has always taken sacks at a high rate, but when he actually throws, he’s generally efficient. Tannehill was 20/24 passing, and averaged over 10+ yards per attempt. His downfield throws were on point. The Titans offensive line will have a huge challenge in slowing down Myles Garrett and Zedarius Smith. I think a conservative, run-heavy game plan is likely in the cards with an occasional deep shot to test the Browns’ shakey secondary outside of Denzel Ward.
Houston +9.5 @ Jacksonville: I’m taking a chance on the long shot Texans this weekend. This is generally just a fade on the Jaguars at a high number they’re not used to. Trevor Lawrence and the offense has been shaky to start the year. Lawrence had one of his worst outings since his rookie season as he completed just 22 of his 41 pass attempts vs. KC last week. Lawrence has faced heavy pressure thus far as he’s seen it on just about 25% of his attempts which ranks in the bottom 3rd of the league. The Jags running game has been equally unimpressive, averaging just 3.4 yards per rush ranking 25th in the NFL. I feel comfortable fading a team with a struggling offensive line and an unproven defense.
Houston has had major protection problems of its own so far, but I think that should improve with Laremy Tunsil likely to come back and play. CJ Stroud got some momentum going last week, albeit in garbage time, but he had an effective day throwing to Tank Dell and Nico Collins. Stroud finished the day with close to 400 yards passing. I think Indianapolis has a better defensive front than Jacksonville, so I believe Stroud should have more time to find his young, but explosive receivers. The Texans have also gotten nothing from their running game, but Dameon Pierce had an effective 99 yard running day in a victory over Jacksonville last October.
Overall, I see a divisional matchup in which the familiarity between the teams may keep the game closer. Houston’s vulnerability has historically been against heavy run teams, with physical offensive lines. I don’t believe that the Jaguars fit that profile, and Houston has a strong chance to keep this a one score game.
Atlanta @ Detroit -3: I simply don’t think Atlanta can keep up in the shootouts that generally occur in Detroit. The Lions averaged 33 points per game at home in 2022 and they picked up right where they left off last week offensively scoring 31 points in a high scoring affair with Seattle. Atlanta has been strong on the ground, but Desmond Ridder is still unproven as a passer. Ridder has had just 1 game in his 6 career starts where he has exceeded 225 yards passing. The Lions had 4 home losses last season, but they came against dynamic passing offenses that poured on points:
|
Team |
Result |
Passer Rating Allowed |
|
Eagles |
38-35 L |
80.60 |
|
Seahawks |
48-45 L |
132.60 |
|
Dolphins |
31-27 L |
138.70 |
|
Bills |
28-25 L |
80.80 |
|
Seahawks (Last Week) |
37-31 L |
116.30 |
To beat Detroit on the road, you need a quarterback that can come in and score into the 30’s and post prolific passing numbers. Ridder just isn’t ready to do that, and I think the Lions will proceed to score in droves.
The Lions have a few concerning injuries, which are the primary reasons why the spread has come down a bit. CJ Gardner Johnson is out. Amon-Ra St. Brown is dealing with a toe injury leaving his status up in the air. Taylor Decker has also missed some time on the offensive line. The St. Brown injury is the most important, but Atlanta doesn’t have the resources to exploit Decker’s absence on the edge, nor do they have the advanced passing game required to hurt Detroit’s backup safety. We’ve seen Kalif Raymond fill in effectively, and I think we should finally see the Lions unleash Jahmyr Gibbs.
Detroit’s run defense has actually been a bright spot. They’ve only allowed 3.6 yards per rush, and if they can bottle up Atlanta’s run game, they should be in a great position to run up the score.
Random Thoughts:
- Money Zone was red hot last week, going 4-1-1!….. Excited to get back on the winning side, lets keep it going!
- Carolina is another ugly team I’m making a play on. I don’t trust the Seahawks at a TD or higher. Panthers should have the defense to ugly the game up, and if Bryce Young is unable to play, Andy Dalton isn’t all that different at this point. Seahawks could also be without DK and are having issues with offensive line
- KC also looks like another strong play. They’ve righted the ship, and the defense looks great. Beras look as bad as they did last year.
- Pittsburgh is a light lean for me, as their pathetic offense has gotten a brutal schedule to start. Things should lighten up considerably vs. Vegas in an indoor setting. However, I’d be worried if Devante Adams is cleared and back in the lineup.
- Tampa’s defense should profile well against the Eagles, but you have to think Jalen Hurts will return to form sooner rather than later
- First one to 50 wins in the Chargers/Vikings game…. No idea who it will be though…..
- No play on the Jets/Pats game, but stay tuned as I think I have a player prop potentially lined up in that one…
- Hard to envision Cincy starting 0-3… but this line is certainly priced like Burrow is out. I can’t get behind either team here.
**As an aside, I’ve had multiple people say that they are having issues receiving my emails….. Make sure to check my site multiple times before Sunday. Generally, my ATS picks will come out Wednesday night, Props + SGP’s will follow on Friday or Saturdays**
Good luck!!!!
