“The Money Zone”: Games that have a “Calculated vs. Actual” difference of between 2 and 6 points are considered The Money Zone. Since 2015, games that fall within this tier have hit ~55% on a sample of over 800 games. I consider games in this tier to have a statistical advantage in the long run. This is a completely objective calculation that does not account for injuries, roster changes, weather etc. However, I believe the smartest investment is to make small bets on each one of these games and slowly increase them over time if you are successful.
|
Away |
Home |
Calculated Spread |
Actual Spread |
Calculated vs Actual |
Projected Winner ATS |
|
Arizona |
San Francisco |
(22.17) |
(14.00) |
8.17 |
San Francisco |
|
Las Vegas |
LA Chargers |
(2.17) |
(5.50) |
3.33 |
Las Vegas |
|
Atlanta |
Jacksonville |
(6.17) |
(3.00) |
3.17 |
Jacksonville |
|
New England |
Dallas |
(9.43) |
(6.50) |
2.93 |
Dallas |
|
Kansas City |
NY Jets |
12.37 |
9.50 |
2.87 |
Kansas City |
|
Pittsburgh |
Houston |
5.50 |
3.00 |
2.50 |
Pittsburgh |
|
LA Rams |
Indianapolis |
0.63 |
(1.50) |
2.13 |
LA Rams |
|
Seattle |
NY Giants |
(3.03) |
(1.50) |
1.53 |
NY Giants |
|
Tampa Bay |
New Orleans |
(1.80) |
(3.00) |
1.20 |
Tampa Bay |
|
Minnesota |
Carolina |
2.37 |
3.50 |
1.13 |
Carolina |
|
Miami |
Buffalo |
(1.50) |
(2.50) |
1.00 |
Miami |
|
Detroit |
Green Bay |
0.60 |
1.50 |
0.90 |
Green Bay |
|
Denver |
Chicago |
4.13 |
3.50 |
0.63 |
Denver |
|
Washington |
Philadelphia |
(8.90) |
(8.50) |
0.40 |
Philadelphia |
|
Baltimore |
Cleveland |
(2.17) |
(2.50) |
0.33 |
Baltimore |
|
Cincinnati |
Tennessee |
2.50 |
2.50 |
– |
Cincinnati |
Money Zone picks for Week 4 are Las Vegas, Jacksonville, Dallas, KC, Pittsburgh, & LA Rams
**Money Zone picks are 9-7 ATS in 2023 (56.25%)**
“Shorestein Says” Picks of the Week: Each week I select between 3-5 of my favorite games and do additional analysis on them. I’ve highlighted the “Shorestein Says” picks of the week in yellow. Read below for my in-depth analysis. **Picks of the Week were 7-5 ATS (58.33% for 2023)**
Atlanta @ Jacksonville -3 (London Game): I’m looking to fade Desmond Ridder again. He proved my point last week when I questioned his ability to function as an NFL passer in a shootout type environment. Fortunately for him it wasn’t much of a shootout as the Lions offense was held relatively in check, but Ridder lived up to his end of the bargain as he looked lost for much of the game and was sacked a shocking 7 times! To me, the Falcons are too dependent on the run to back outside of their home comfort zone. The Jaguars run defense has been excellent so far this season. This is a continuation from last year as they also ranked well in that category. Here are some numbers that should fend well against the Falcons rushing attack which they lean on heavily:
|
Season |
Yards Allowed / Rush |
EPA per Rush |
Success Rate per Rush |
|
2022 |
4.10 (4th) |
-0.11 (6th) |
40.40% (14th) |
|
2023 |
3.40 (6th) |
-.301 (3rd) |
28.10% (2nd) |
These numbers tell me that the Jaguars have a strong chance to contain the Falcons on the ground.
Where the Jags have struggled so far this season has been against the pass. They had blown coverages on several occasions vs. the Texans last week which led to huge completions from CJ Stroud. Jacksonville also had a number of gaffes on special teams including a kickoff return for a TD and a blocked FG. These glaring errors got the game out of hand.
Trevor Lawrence and the offense simply have not been sharp. Frankly, they’ve been quite bad outside of week 1. I think the weapons that they have at receiver combined with the coaching scheme implemented by Doug Pederson gets me to believe that they can turn it around especially against a team like Atlanta. The Falcons had all kinds of problems defending Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam La Porta. Look for the Jags to deploy Christian Kirk and Evan Engram in a similar fashion to attack these weaknesses.
The Jaguars have played in London 9 times since 2013. I think the familiarity should give them some kind of benefit. While they were a bad team for a lot of those games, Trevor Lawrence should at least feel comfortable in that setting. If it takes time for the Falcons to adjust to the environment, Jacksonville might get an added boost.
LA Rams +1.5 @ Indy: I think the Rams have outperformed expectations so far. They had a convincing win over Seattle and played competitive games against the Niners and Bengals. I’m not surprised that Sean McVay has orchestrated an effective passing game with limitations on the line and at wide receiver. He has proven himself as a play-caller and creative offensive mind. Puka Nacua has been excellent in the possession game and they have gotten some explosive plays from Tutu Atwell and Van Jefferson. Matthew Stafford should continue his efficiency against a pass defense that has struggled through 3 weeks. Here is a comparison of the passing matchup for the Rams offense vs. the Colts defense:
|
Team |
Yards per Pass Att |
Dropback Success Rate |
Pressure % |
|
Rams Offense |
7.2 (9th) |
46.50% (13th) |
17.40% (8th) |
|
Colts Defense |
6.80 (22nd) |
50% (28th) |
22.30% (18th) |
The key to Stafford’s success has been his ability to get rid of the ball quickly. Indy’s strength is in its pass rush, but if Stafford continues the quick releases, they should keep the chains moving.
I think the Colts defense benefited from the poor weather in Baltimore last week and were able to win matchups in the running game. Whether it’s Anthony Richardson or Gardner Minshew, Stafford should have the advantage in an indoor game that’s more conducive to passing situations.
Despite the perceived lack of talent on the defensive side for the Rams, they have held up relatively well. At 74.5, they’ve posted the 6th best passer rating defense thus far. Defensive Coordinator Raheem Morris should be able to give Richardson creative schemes that he hasn’t seen at the NFL level yet.
Mcvay has been an excellent underdog bet. The Rams have posted a 12-8 record ATS (60%) since 2020 in underdog situations. I like this trend to continue as I also have my doubts backing Indy as a favorite. Indy has a record of 13-16 ATS during that same time frame. I don’t have much faith in the Colts to repeat what they did last week against a better passing team.
Las Vegas +5.5 @ LA Chargers: I’m leaning on the underdog Raiders in this matchup. In this divisional rivalry in the Herbert era, no team has proven to keep a consistent edge over the other.
|
Season |
Raiders Score |
Chargers Score |
|
2022 |
31.00 |
26.00 |
|
2022 |
27.00 |
30.00 |
|
2021 |
14.00 |
28.00 |
|
2021 |
35.00 |
32.00 |
|
2020 |
19.00 |
24.00 |
|
2020 |
27.00 |
20.00 |
Neither team has changed significantly during the course of this rivalry and Herbert is just 3-3 against the Vegas. The Raiders pass defense has been awful the entire time, and the Chargers run defense has been equally as bad. So far this season, the Chargers have had no answers in the secondary. JC Jackson has gotten himself benched for LA, and the Chargers have surrendered one of the worst passer ratings allowed in the whole league. Devante Adams should have another prolific day receiving.
Jimmy Garoppolo is currently in the concussion protocol but there seems to be optimism that he will be cleared by kickoff. Regardless, this should finally be the week to get Josh Jacobs going in the ground game again as the Raiders have been one of the least effective rushing teams in the NFL. Jacobs was excellent in this series in 2022, and if the Raiders have any chance they’ll need some production from the rushing attack. In 2 of the last 3 games in this matchup, Jacobs has had 26 carries and over 130+ yards rushing. Jacobs has also averaged over 5 yards per carry in 3 straight games vs. these Chargers.
With the loss of Mike Williams, I think the Chargers lose some of their big play potential. Josh Palmer and Quentin Johnston will try to fill that void, but I don’t think they can be relied upon with the same confidence. The Raiders secondary remains underwhelming, but I think the presence of Marcus Peters at least gives them more of a turnover threat. Maxx Crosby will continue to see double teams all day, so it will be important for rookie edge rusher Tyree Wilson to get some pressures going. Austin Ekeler is still questionable with his ankle injury. If he is held out again, that should obviously favor Vegas.
New England @ Dallas -6.5: Dallas clearly slept walk through their matchup with the Cardinals. Their defense was dominated by the Cardinals running game as they barely showed up to play. I think a performance like that should shake them up and regain their focus in a game with the Patriots. The Patriots defense has been solid so far, but they had the luxury of facing both tough offensive opponents at home. The Philly game was also played in terrible weather conditions. I think the Patriots will not be prepared for Dallas’ speed on offense in an indoor setting.
The last time the Patriots faced Dak Prescott was in New England in 2021, and the Cowboys racked up the most yardage a Belichick team has ever given up. Prescott threw for over 440 yards and Cee Dee Lamb had a monster of a day in a Cowboys overtime win. Now I don’t anticipate as big of an offensive explosion this week, but I think it’s very likely Dallas gets to their typical 30 points which they’ve averaged at home for the past 2 seasons.
The Mac Jones Patriots just haven’t shown that they can win in a shootout type atmosphere. Offense continues to be a problem for New England despite the change in coordinators. Here are how their numbers compare to last season which was widely considered an utter failure:
|
Season |
Yards / Play |
Passer Rating |
Points Per Game |
|
2022 |
5.30 (19th) |
87.70 (18th) |
21.40 (16th) |
|
2023 |
4.70 (24th) |
87.70 (17th) |
17.30 (26th) |
The offense certainly hasn’t looked as poor as it did last season, but the numbers just aren’t different. Although they got a better performance from the offensive line with Trent Brown back in the lineup vs. the Jets, I think they will have trouble blocking both Demarcus Lawrence and Micah Parsons. Dallas has been one of the best turnover forcing machines over the past few seasons, and Mac Jones has proven that he is vulnerable to a mental lapse or two per game.
I think is a great buy low opportunity on Dallas after a poor showing. Zach Martin and Tyron Smith were both out last week, but there is a likelihood they get 1 or both back to solidify things on the offensive line.
Random Thoughts:
- Pittsburgh looks like a strong play against Houston. I think Stroud will be in for a tough day facing the Steelers front with the injury situation that is still present on the Texans line.
- As long as Zach Wilson is still taking snaps, I think the Jets are in must fade territory. He is clearly the worst QB in the NFL, and the team’s morale has been crushed as a result.
- Arizona has covered every game so far…. Maybe they aren’t as bad as we all thought…..
- Tampa is an intriguing play. Jameis as a FG+ favorite looks like a scary proposition.
- Miami/Buffalo should be a great game… No play for me, just want to sit back and watch the fireworks.
- Detroit vs. Green Bay is a big one for anyone who tailed my futures bets. If Detroit can get ahead in the standings early, that would be huge. I’ll sit this one out and look to capitalize on the Lions when they host GB on thanksgiving.
- Denver v. Chicago…. Woof!…. nothing to play for me here.
- Hope you all cashed in on last week’s prop bet…. Tank Dell’s monster day was a nice bonus to hit the alternative numbers…. I’ll try to duplicate that success with another!
**As an aside, I’ve had multiple people say that they are having issues receiving my emails….. Make sure to check my site multiple times before Sunday. Generally, my ATS picks will come out Wednesday night, Props + SGP’s will follow on Friday or Saturdays**
Good luck!!!!
