“The Money Zone”: Games that have a “Calculated vs. Actual” difference of between 2 and 6 points are considered The Money Zone. Since 2015, games that fall within this tier have hit ~55% on a sample of over 800 games. I consider games in this tier to have a statistical advantage in the long run. This is a completely objective calculation that does not account for injuries, roster changes, weather etc. However, I believe the smartest investment is to make small bets on each one of these games and slowly increase them over time if you are successful.
|
Away |
Home |
Calculated Spread |
Actual Spread |
Calculated vs Actual |
Projected Winner ATS |
|
NY Jets |
Denver |
(9.33) |
(1.50) |
7.83 |
Denver |
|
Cincinnati |
Arizona |
10.50 |
3.00 |
7.50 |
Cincinnati |
|
Baltimore |
Pittsburgh |
(2.83) |
4.00 |
6.83 |
Pittsburgh |
|
Green Bay |
Las Vegas |
5.83 |
1.00 |
4.83 |
Green Bay |
|
Houston |
Atlanta |
(5.83) |
(1.50) |
4.33 |
Atlanta |
|
Dallas |
San Francisco |
(0.17) |
(3.50) |
3.33 |
Dallas |
|
Jacksonville |
Buffalo |
(2.83) |
(5.50) |
2.67 |
Jacksonville |
|
New Orleans |
New England |
(3.57) |
(1.00) |
2.57 |
New England |
|
Kansas City |
Minnesota |
5.80 |
4.00 |
1.80 |
Kansas City |
|
NY Giants |
Miami |
(9.63) |
(11.00) |
1.37 |
NY Giants |
|
Philadelphia |
LA Rams |
5.40 |
4.50 |
0.90 |
Philadelphia |
|
Chicago |
Washington |
(6.80) |
(6.00) |
0.80 |
Washington |
|
Carolina |
Detroit |
(9.23) |
(10.00) |
0.77 |
Carolina |
|
Tennessee |
Indianapolis |
(2.03) |
(1.50) |
0.53 |
Indianapolis |
Money Zone picks for Week 5 Green Bay, Dallas, Jacksonville, Atlanta, & New England
**Money Zone picks are 12-10 ATS in 2023 (54.55%)**
“Shorestein Says” Picks of the Week: Each week I select between 3-5 of my favorite games and do additional analysis on them. I’ve highlighted the “Shorestein Says” picks of the week in yellow. Read below for my in-depth analysis. **Picks of the Week were 10-6 ATS (62.50% for 2023)… Now 50-36 ATS since 2022! (58.14%)**
Houston @ Atlanta -1.5: I’ve faded Desmond Ridder and the Falcons for 3 consecutive weeks… This week however, I love the Falcons as a narrow favorite. The Texans are the ideal matchup for the run-heavy Falcons. Head coach Arthur Smith should know exactly how to scheme running lanes against the Houston defense as he did so with great success as OC for the Titans a few years ago. Derrick Henry has absolutely demolished the Texans running defense, and I expect a similar result from Bijan Robinson behind Atlanta’s excellent offensive line. The Titans track record of dominance over Houston is outlined below. Look for Arthur Smith to pick up right where he left off as he has a better offensive line and possibly an equally as talented runner:
|
Season |
Result |
Derrick Henry Rushing Yards | |
|
2019 |
W 35-14 |
211.00 |
Arthur Smith OC** |
|
2020 |
W 42-36 |
212.00 |
Arthur Smith OC** |
|
2020 |
W 41-38 |
250.00 |
Arthur Smith OC** |
|
2022 |
W 17-10 |
219.00 | |
|
2022 |
L 14-19 |
126.00 |
The Houston defense has shown a little bit of life this season under new head coach Demeco Ryans, but they still lead the NFL in missed tackles at 40+. The defense had success against Jacksonville and Pittsbugh, who both rank near the bottom in rushing offenses. When they faced better running teams vs. Baltimore and Indianapolis, they struggled and lost both games. This game should fit the perfect game script for Desmond Ridder. I think it’s plausible that he attempts less than 15 passes. A few play action throws should be all that’s required if they’re able to run the ball as successfully as I believe they will. If he struggles, I’d be happy to see backup Taylor Heinicke come into the game, as Ridder should have a short leash at this point.
Defensively, Atlanta has been better than I thought. They’ve generated a nice pass rush with their veteran additions. Despite CJ Stroud’s emergence as a passer, he has still faced consistent pressure in his face behind his injury riddled offensive line. Houston has allowed pressure on 27.5% of attempts which ranks just 27th. Atlanta’s defense is 4th in pressure created, which should be another advantage they hold in this game.
I’ll never use the “L” word in any article I write, but I feel stronger about this game than any other so far this season….. (We’ll see if I regret writing that later…..)
Jacksonville +5.5 @ Buffalo (In London): I am primarily fading the situation and spot for Buffalo this week. I expect an emotional let down from the Bills after they played in the biggest game of the young NFL season thus far and appeared to empty the tank in victory. I think it’s a tall order to then travel to London and play in an unfamiliar atmosphere. Jacksonville, on the other hand, has the benefit of playing a second game straight overseas and should be well adjusted for their practice schedule and timing. Because the Jaguars have had so many games in London, I think they actually gain some home field advantage which doesn’t appear to be priced in.
Trevor Lawrence and the Jags offense appeared to get things straightened out vs. the Falcons. Lawrence got some first downs from rushing which is always helpful as a QB, and I think it helped out his rhythm. Christian Kirk has also come back into the fold, and had an effective game in the slot. Jacksonville should have an advantage with its wide receivers as the Bills will try to replace Tredavious White and possibly Jordan Poyer in the secondary. There should be some more opportunities for Calvin Ridley to repeat his big performance from week 1.
It’s always hard to fade the Bills offense especially once they get rolling. However, Josh Allen had one of his worst games as a pro a couple seasons back vs. the Jaguars. If you recall, the Bills came into Jacksonville as a significant favorite towards the end of the 2021 season. The 2-6 Jags beat the Bills 9-6. Allen threw 2 interceptions, was sacked 4 times, and also lost a fumble. About half the defensive starters for Jacksonville are still with the team, so I think that should at least give them some confidence that they can slow Buffalo down. I certainly don’t expect Allen to play as bad as he did the first time, but there is a history of Allen having consistent struggles against the same teams; most notably Allen’s problems against the New York Jets.
New Orleans @ New England -1: It’s always hard to jump back on a team after they’ve been blown off the field… It’s even harder to justify it in an article format….. But here goes my attempt….
The Patriots season is likely on the line, as a 1-4 start would bury them in the AFC. But one thing the Patriots can do well is beat up on mediocre to bad quarterbacks. Derek Carr looked extremely limited by injury last week, and if he’s unable to go, Jameis Winston is one of the most turnover-prone quarterbacks in NFL history. The Patriots suffered some key losses on defense to Judon and Christian Gonzalez, but they have depth on defense and today they brought in a familiar face in JC Jackson to fill the void. I think they’ll have a great plan to pressure Carr or Winston with the heavy blitz pressure that they’ve been using at times this year. New Orleans ranks 26th in dropback success rate at just 41.9%.
Here’s how the Patriots have performed against what I would call lower-level quarterbacks in the back half of last year + this season:
|
Season |
Opposing QB |
Opposing QB Rating |
Result |
|
2023 |
Zach Wilson |
61.90 |
W 15-10 |
|
2022 |
Teddy Bridgewater/Skylar Thompson |
76.00 |
W 23-21 |
|
2022 |
Colt McCoy |
73.50 |
W 27-13 |
|
2022 |
Zach Wilson |
50.80 |
W 10-3 |
|
2022 |
Sam Ehlinger |
45.60 |
W 26-3 |
Speaking of bad offense, Mac Jones is coming off a colossal failure of a game. Jones’ typically can make a mistake or two, but generally he can be relied on as a good decision maker. I thought last week was out of character, and I’d be stunned if he didn’t put together a better performance vs. the Saints. His job and future in New England is potentially on the line. The Patriots need a game from Rhamondre Stevenson. He’s been ineffective, and the offensive line has gotten nothing going on the ground. I think they need to stick with the run and grind out a win on defense like they have done so many times, even in the post-Brady era.
Dallas +3.5 @ San Francisco: Dallas getting over a field goal is a bet for me. Aside from the poor performance at Arizona, the Cowboys have been dynamite. They dominated every aspect of the game in their 3 wins as they are ranked #1 in the NFL in yards/point margin, #1 in opponent passer rating, and #2 in takeaways. I think overall, this game means much more to Dallas as they haven’t proven that they can beat the Niners yet. This should create some urgency for the Cowboys as they could certainly meet again in December or January.
Both the Niners and Cowboys have faced a relatively soft schedule so far, so I think this will be the first real test for either team. That situation alone tells me that the underdog at over a FG is likely the best bet, because I think it might take time for both teams to adjust to the game speed.
In the playoffs last year, San Francisco had a better offensive line than they do now. Without Mike McGlinchey at RT, I think Dan Quinn and the Cowboys will deploy Micah Parsons to that side. He took the same approach against New England last week and it had a lot to do with Mac Jones’ mental breakdown.
I don’t know how many more times I can say it, but I still don’t think Brock Purdy has faced much adversity yet. He remains undefeated as a starter during the regular season, but he’s had the luxury of playing just about every game he’s started as a front runner. 8 of his 10 starts in the regular season have been blow out wins. I’m curious to see how he would respond to an early turnover and without a cushion of a lead. Dallas might be the team to finally give him that test.
Random Thoughts:
- Keep playing those props! They are now 3-1 on the season, and it is now 2 consecutive weeks where the alternate lines have succeeded as well.
- I’ve wrote the article a million times by now, but the underdog has won between Baltimore / Pittsburgh 8 games in a row I believe…… I don’t have the same level of confidence as normal if Trubisky takes the stage, but I think this is an AFC North auto-bet.
- Have to think Miami throttles the Giants after suffering their first defeat.
- The Lions look like a factor in the NFC. They can’t afford to fall asleep against a team like Carolina.
- Will Cincinnati ever wake up? Seems like time is running out on their season and it’s only the first weekend of October. You’d have to think they straighten things out somewhat against a basement dweller like the Cardinals. I’m not betting it though…..
- Amazing win last week by the Rams. Sounds like Matthew Stafford will give it a go vs. the Eagles, but I think Philly should be in a position to blow doors.
- Get ready to watch the scoreboard in the Vikings/Chiefs game…. The Dolphins 70 might get some competition.
**As an aside, I’ve had multiple people say that they are having issues receiving my emails….. Make sure to check my site multiple times before Sunday. Generally, my ATS picks will come out Wednesday night, Props + SGP’s will follow on Friday or Saturdays**
Good luck!!!!
