“The Money Zone”: Games that have a “Calculated vs. Actual” difference of between 2 and 6 points are considered The Money Zone. Since 2015, games that fall within this tier have hit ~55% on a sample of over 800 games. I consider games in this tier to have a statistical advantage in the long run. This is a completely objective calculation that does not account for injuries, roster changes, weather etc. However, I believe the smartest investment is to make small bets on each one of these games and slowly increase them over time if you are successful.
|
Away |
Home |
Calculated Spread |
Actual Spread |
Calculated vs Actual |
Projected Winner ATS |
|
New Orleans |
Houston |
6.50 |
1.50 |
5.00 |
New Orleans |
|
Seattle |
Cincinnati |
(6.83) |
(2.50) |
4.33 |
Cincinnati |
|
Detroit |
Tampa Bay |
6.67 |
3.00 |
3.67 |
Detroit |
|
Indianapolis |
Jacksonville |
(1.03) |
(4.50) |
3.47 |
Indianapolis |
|
Dallas |
LA Chargers |
3.67 |
2.00 |
1.67 |
Dallas |
|
New England |
Las Vegas |
(1.90) |
(3.50) |
1.60 |
New England |
|
Philadelphia |
NY Jets |
8.57 |
7.00 |
1.57 |
Philadelphia |
|
Minnesota |
Chicago |
3.87 |
2.50 |
1.37 |
Minnesota |
|
Arizona |
LA Rams |
(8.17) |
(7.00) |
1.17 |
LA Rams |
|
San Francisco |
Cleveland | 6.17 | 6.00 | 0.17 |
San Francisco |
|
NY Giants |
Buffalo |
(13.17) |
(14.00) |
0.83 |
NY Giants |
|
Carolina |
Miami |
(14.13) |
(13.50) |
0.63 |
Miami |
|
Baltimore |
Tennessee |
3.83 |
4.00 |
0.17 |
Tennessee |
|
Washington |
Atlanta |
(2.67) |
(2.50) |
0.17 |
Atlanta |
|
Denver |
Kansas City |
(10.53) |
(10.50) |
0.03 |
Kansas City |
Money Zone picks for Week 6 are Indy, Cincinnati, Detroit, & New Orleans
**Money Zone picks are 14-13 ATS in 2023 (51.85%)**
“Shorestein Says” Picks of the Week: Each week I select between 3-5 of my favorite games and do additional analysis on them. I’ve highlighted the “Shorestein Says” picks of the week in yellow. Read below for my in-depth analysis. **Picks of the Week were 12-8 ATS (60.00% for 2023)… Now 52-38 ATS since 2022! (57.78%)**
Indy +4.5 @ Jacksonville: I’m again making a play on the Jaguars, but this time I am fading their situational spot. Much like I anticipated, Jacksonville took advantage of an extra week in London and got out to a hot start against an emotionally drained Buffalo team. I think the Jaguars will be similarly depleted coming off the biggest win of the season and traveling back from London only to find themselves as a FG+ favorite vs. a divisional foe that has played them tough for the past few outings.
From a numbers stand point, these teams match up very closely. See below for the key statistics and rankings:
|
Category |
Jacksonville |
Indianapolis |
|
Yards / Point Margin |
18th |
10th |
|
Offensive EPA / play |
21st |
19th |
|
Defensive EPA / play |
11th |
16th |
|
Passer Rating Def. |
17th |
19th |
|
Passer Rating Off. |
13th |
15th |
From a matchup perspective, I think Indianapolis does a great job of taking away Christian Kirk. When I watch the Jaguars, I think they are at their best when Lawrence and Kirk are clicking. In the past 2 games, vs. Indy, Kirk has only caught 5 passes for a total of just 33 yards. Kenny Moore of the Colts does a great job covering slot receivers, so I think he’ll continue to shadow Kirk. The Colts defensive front remains the strength of the team behind Grover Stewart and Deforest Buckner. The Jags did a solid job vs. the Bills last week, but have struggled with pressure in most other games this season. They’ve given up the 8th highest amount of pressure to date this season, so look for Indy to win that area of the game. It’s possible DE Kwity Paye returns this week for the Colts and he should fortify that effort on the defensive front.
Gardner Minshew will get the start at QB for the Colts, and I think he’s very reliable to be accurate and quick. Josh Downs had his best game last week at receiver as he got on track for close to 100 yards. Minshew will likely have to rely on the passing game with Downs and Pittman as the Jaguars have been one of the strongest teams against the run. It’ll also be nice to get Jonathan Taylor back on his 2nd week back from contract hiatus. He watched Zack Moss run all over the Titans last week; I’d expect him to play with extra motivation to protect his job.
New Orleans -1.5 @ Houston: The Saints have quietly been one of the best defenses in the NFL so far in the early season. They lead the NFL in defensive passer rating at an unbelievable average of 66.10. While CJ Stroud has had an impressive stretch for a rookie QB, the Texans have gotten absolutely nothing from their running game as they rank 31st in yards / attempt. I don’t think this one dimensional approach will be effective vs. the Saints. To compound that problem, Stroud will likely be playing without his most explosive offensive weapon as Tank Dell left last week’s game with a concussion. Houston continues to have protection problems as the offensive line has given up the 7th highest pressure %. I think the Saints defense is likely to force Stroud’s first career interception.
Stroud’s generated the Texans offense with explosive plays, ranking 3rd in yards per completion at 11.9. However, he ranks just 26th in completion %. If New Orleans can take away the dynamic plays, I don’t have confidence that the Texans can lead many methodical drives and convert them into touchdowns. With the Texans lack of a running game, they have struggled badly in the red zone ranking 29th with a 35.29% touchdown rate.
The New Orleans offense has left a lot to be desired. Last week, Mac Jones gift wrapped them the early lead, and they basically just ran the ball with a conservative game plan to protect their lead. Last week, the Houston defense was carved up by probably the worst starting QB in the league in Desmond Ridder. Chris Olave and Michael Thomas should finally get some opportunities for some big plays. Derek Carr’s shoulder looked better last week, and I have confidence the Saints offense can do enough to win by a FG+.
Seattle @ Cincinnati -2.5 (Caesars): Call me crazy, but I’m “taking the cheese” on the Bengals offense. It may have only been against the sad Cardinals defense, but Joe Burrow’s mobility looked significantly better. Jamar Chase returned to his dominant self as he went nuclear on Arizona. The Bengals offensive line has struggled so far this season, but I don’t believe the Seahawks have any dominant pass rushers. They teed off on Daniel Jones in their last matchup, but that to me, was much more a story of what is going on in New York. I expect Burrow to continue to improve on a weekly basis, and the Bengals have shown everyone how dominant they can be once they get their confidence going again.
Seattle’s defense has had some holes so far. They rank 27th in dropback success rate, 19th in dropback EPA/play, and 21st in opponent passing yards / attempt. I think Burrow has a great chance to pick up where he left off and continue his explosiveness with his great weapons on the outside.
Geno Smith has continued to play well, but he’s potentially dealing with an injury of his own as he was taken down in a dirty fashion on the sidelines last game. Smith has also dealt with a struggling offensive line, as both his starting tackles have been out of the lineup and will most likely continue to be this weekend. This feels like a game for Trey Hendrickson to come alive and be a potential game wrecker. Over the past 2 seasons, the Bengals have been a reliable game plan specific defense under Lou Anarumo. I think he’ll come up with a great scheme to attack the weaknesses on the Seahawk offensive line.
Detroit -3 @ Tampa Bay: I can’t say enough how impressed I’ve been with Detroit, and most importantly it has been because of their improvements on defense. I never thought in a million years that they would rank top 10 in both rush and dropback EPA/play after seeing how terrible of a defense they were in 2022.
Tampa is coming in with some momentum, but I think their lack of a running game (32nd in rush yards / carry) and over reliance on Baker Mayfield will eventually bring them down. I think the Bucs will have trouble matching scores with Detroit and that can get Mayfield in trouble when he tries to force the ball down the field. I think a great example of this was in the Eagles game. Philly got off to an early lead and Mayfield looked like he got impatient. The numbers below seem to tell that same story:
|
Scenario |
Air Yards / Attempt |
Bad Throw % |
Pressure % |
INT % |
|
Mayfield Stats in 3 Victories |
6.69 |
10.00% |
15.00% |
1.00% |
|
Mayfield Stats vs Eagles |
10.60 |
24.00% |
21.40% |
4.00% |
These numbers tell you exactly what you’re eyes see. In the 3 victories, the Bucs played with the lead which allowed Baker to check the ball down and play conservatively. When they fell behind vs. Philly, you can see how he reacted to pressure, which is pretty consistent with how he’s played throughout his career.
I have full faith in the Lions offensive line and running game to allow them to dictate the game flow in this matchup. Tampa’s defense has relied on turnovers to take control of games. Detroit OC Ben Johnson remains one of the best game plan specific play callers in the NFL, and I think he’ll utilize David Montgomery and play-action to exploit matchups against the Bucs secondary. The Lions are 2nd in the NFL in the number of play action passes they’ve called, and I think that will continue to be the focus against an aggressive linebacking corps. Sam La Porta has emerged as a weapon at tight end, and it sounds like Detroit is optimistic about getting Amon-Ra St. Brown back this week. I think the Lions can cover the FG margin this week.
Random Thoughts:
- Pretty ugly week for me last week…. Completely missed the mark on the Cowboys and Patriots as they both got steam rolled. I’m steering clear of both those teams this week.
- Not much else I like on the board this week as far as sides go. If I got more clarity on Deshaun Watson’s status, I’d lean Cleveland getting a TD at home vs. the Niners. However, it seems up in the air if he’s playing, and I refuse to back Dorian Thompson Robinson against a great defense.
- The Ravens/Titans matchup profiles as a game where I’d normally like Tennessee given their track record as an underdog and strong run defense. But the London factor, and their pass defense has given me pause. Feels like the Ravens are due to return to form.
- Another set of 2 enormous spreads for the Dolphins and Bills…. I certainly can’t back the Giants or Panthers in their current state, but I’m also hesitant to lay 2 TD’s+…..
- I also wanted to lean Jets with the large number as a dog. But after looking more into the pressure allowed for NYJ, and the Eagles ability to create it, i’m petrified to enter a bet on Zach Wilson in that scenario.
- Atlanta also felt like a fade candidate coming off their last second win and great passing performance by Desmond Ridder. The Washington defense however has been an absolute nightmare. They’ve been torched for 33+ points in 4 consecutive games. I just couldn’t bring myself to do it.
As an aside, I’ve had multiple people say that they are having issues receiving my emails….. Make sure to check my site multiple times before Sunday. Generally, my ATS picks will come out Wednesday night, Props + SGP’s will follow on Friday or Saturdays**
Good luck!!!!
