“The Money Zone”: Games that have a “Calculated vs. Actual” difference of between 2 and 6 points are considered The Money Zone. Since 2015, games that fall within this tier have hit ~55% on a sample of over 800 games. I consider games in this tier to have a statistical advantage in the long run. This is a completely objective calculation that does not account for injuries, roster changes, weather etc. However, I believe the smartest investment is to make small bets on each one of these games and slowly increase them over time if you are successful.
|
Away |
Home |
Calculated Spread |
Actual Spread |
Calculated vs Actual |
Projected Winner ATS |
|
Pittsburgh |
LA Rams |
3.33 |
(3.00) |
6.33 |
Pittsburgh |
|
Detroit |
Baltimore |
1.03 |
(3.00) |
4.03 |
Detroit |
|
Washington |
NY Giants |
5.60 |
2.00 |
3.60 |
Washington |
|
Cleveland |
Indianapolis |
5.97 |
2.50 |
3.47 |
Cleveland |
|
LA Chargers |
Kansas City |
(3.07) |
(5.50) |
2.43 |
LA Chargers |
|
Miami |
Philadelphia |
(4.57) |
(2.50) |
2.07 |
Philadelphia |
|
Buffalo |
New England |
6.63 |
8.50 |
1.87 |
New England |
|
Green Bay |
Denver |
(0.67) |
1.00 |
1.67 |
Denver |
|
Arizona |
Seattle |
(9.00) |
(7.50) |
1.50 |
Seattle |
|
Las Vegas |
Chicago |
2.23 |
3.00 |
0.77 |
Chicago |
|
Jacksonville |
New Orleans |
(2.20) |
(1.50) |
0.70 |
New Orleans |
|
Atlanta |
Tampa Bay |
(1.87) |
(2.50) |
0.63 |
Atlanta |
|
San Francisco |
Minnesota |
6.70 |
7.00 |
0.30 |
Minnesota |
Money Zone picks for Week 7 are Detroit, Washington, Cleveland, LA Chargers, & Philadelphia
**Money Zone picks are 16-15 ATS in 2023 (51.61%)**
“Shorestein Says” Picks of the Week: Each week I select between 3-5 of my favorite games and do additional analysis on them. I’ve highlighted the “Shorestein Says” picks of the week in yellow. Read below for my in-depth analysis. **Picks of the Week were 14-10 ATS (58.33% 2023)… Now 54-40 ATS since 2022! (57.44%)**
Washington -2 @ NY Giants: This week, I’m choosing to fade the disaster that is the NY Giants offense. While New York was able to muster together a commendable effort in an overmatched challenge vs. the Bills, I think it’s highly unlikely that they can duplicate it on a shorter than normal week. I think the fact that they were so close to pulling off the upset but losing in a dramatic fashion will carry an emotional toll into week 7.
To make matters worse, the offensive line is still in a state of injury disarray. Franchise tackle Andrew Thomas remains out, and now it’s possible they will be without fellow linemen Matt Peart, Evan Neal, John Schmitz, and Joshua Ezeudu. This is a disastrous situation for a team that wasn’t good at blocking to begin with. Daniel Jones will likely be back this week, but this was after he played games in which he was pressured at a 40%+ rate for 2 consecutive games. Washington’s strength is in its defensive line, and after they teed off on Desmond Ridder, they should have an even stronger showing vs. what’s left of the Giants O-line.
While the Commanders aren’t much better at protecting Sam Howell, they should be able to handle the soft Giants front seven. The Giants blitz at the fourth highest rate in the NFL, yet they only generate pressure at the 24th highest percentage. This tells me that no one can win inside on individual pass rush matchups. When Howell has actually had time to throw he’s been effective. The Commanders are 15th in passer rating which is light years better than the 29th ranked Giants passing attack.
The Commanders are also in position to generate an effective run game with Brian Robinson. Last year, Robinson posted two of his most effective games as he ran for 90+ yards in both contests vs. New York and averaged 5.6 yards per carry. Washington may not be able to pass protect, but OC Eric Bienemy should have a great game plan to attack one of the most porous run defenses in the NFL:
|
Yards Allowed per Carry |
Rush EPA / Play |
Rush Success Rate |
|
5.10 (31st) |
.03 – (31st) |
44.90% (28th) |
I think the Commanders have favorable matchups in the trenches on both sides of the ball and should be able to win with a conservative run game. This game feels like it’s right up Ron Rivera’s alley.
Miami @ Philadelphia -2.5: I’m looking for the Eagles to get back on track after a disappointing loss to the Jets last week. Miami has probably the most explosive offense that I can remember in recent years, but I’m not sure it will hold up against Philly’s devastating pass rush. Tua has been lights out in just about every game except when he faced Buffalo. In Miami’s 5 wins, Tua never faced a pressure rate of over 15%. In the only loss at Buffalo, Tagovailoa saw a 29% pressure rate and was sacked 3 times. The Eagles front 7 has the 4th highest pressure rate, and I think there’s a chance they could rattle him. Jalen Carter has returned to practice and should be a huge factor on the inside to blow up the Miami backfield. The Dolphins offense is almost unstoppable when it’s in rhythm, but I think this Eagles front has the tools to throw things off schedule and off its impeccable timing.
When the Eagles have the ball, I think they can attack this Dolphins defense however they choose. They can lean on their running game behind their dominant offensive line and generate clock killing drives. They could also mix in deep shots to the most physically dominant receiver in the league on the outside with AJ Brown. Brown has been a beast on the outside and has gone for 125+ yards in 4 consecutive games.
The Miami defense has taken advantage of some of the worst offenses in the NFL on its early schedule. In 4 of their convincing wins, they faced offenses ranked 32nd (New England), 31st (NYG), 26th (CAR), and 16th (Denver) in EPA per play. When they faced better offenses like Buffalo and the Chargers, I think you saw the Dolphins defense get exposed:
|
Opponent |
Points Allowed |
Passer Rating Allowed |
Yards / Play Allowed |
|
Chargers |
34.00 |
99.20 |
5.93 |
|
Bills |
48.00 |
158.30 |
7.67 |
Philly has been a phenomenal home favorite going back several years now. Since 2021, they are 10-4 ATS which is a scorching 71.4% win rate. One of the losses was with Minshew as quarterback, and the other 2 were clearly games where the Eagles overlooked an inferior opponent (Washington 2x, and Minnesota was a late backdoor). The Eagles should be in a strong position to get a win on what looks to be a cooler, potentially rainy October night game. I think the Eagles firmness on the offensive/defensive lines and their advantage running the ball should give them a better chance to control the game.
Detroit +3 @ Baltimore: Detroit got another convincing win last week in which its defense smothered another opposing offense. At some point, the Lions need to be taken seriously as a contender in the NFC as they are now one of the hottest teams in the NFL. If you go back to last season, they are 10-2 in their last twelve games, and they appear to have a great balanced attack behind a dominant offensive line and a surprisingly stout defense. This would normally be a spot where I would fade an indoor offensive team like Detroit, but they continue to look good in outdoor venues. Here is how they performed in their last 4 outdoor games:
|
Opponent |
Result |
Def. Passer Rating Allowed |
Net Rushing Yards |
|
Tampa Bay |
W – 20-6 |
56.80 |
(+40) |
|
Green Bay |
W 34 – 20 |
69.90 |
(+184) |
|
Kansas City |
W 21 – 20 |
77.50 |
(+28) |
|
Green Bay |
W 20 – 16 |
83.10 |
(+1) |
I highlighted how they are winning the edge in rushing yards, and their defense has been excellent against opposing quarterbacks. This doesn’t profile as a typical dome team, and their ability in these areas should bode well against a physical run team like Baltimore.
The Ravens have gotten great production from their defense as they rank very high in the majority of defensive analytics. However, much like Miami, I think they’ve had the benefit of facing some very poor offenses so far.
|
Opponent |
EPA / Play Rank |
Passer Rating |
Yards / Play |
|
Tennessee |
12th |
75.40 (28th) |
17th |
|
Pittsburgh |
29th |
78.40 (26th) |
27th |
|
Cleveland |
30th |
66.30 (32nd) |
28th |
|
Indianapolis |
22nd |
83.50 (20th) |
16th |
|
Cincinnati |
25th |
79.50 (25th) |
31st |
|
Houston |
11th |
98.0 (8th) |
13th |
You could make a case that every offense the Ravens have faced (outside of Houston) has been a bottom third level offense. Now it’s not their fault that they dominated the weak offenses they faced, I just think that it might take some time for them to adjust to the talent and ability to scheme for the Lions offense.
On the injury front, it appears the Lions will be without David Montgomery again, but they should get Jahmyr Gibbs to give them some more speed out of the backfield. Speaking of speed, Jameson Williams has emerged as the deep threat that the Lions were searching for, and I would expect his role to continue to grow. Craig Reynolds has done a fine job getting the dirty carries between the tackles. I think the Lions getting a field goal has great value at this point as they continue to stack wins on top of one another and you can feel the confidence illuminating from the players and coaches.
LA Chargers +5.5 @ Kansas City: The Chargers came up short vs. the Cowboys on Monday night. Yet again, you can highlight some critical fourth down failures from head coach Brandon Staley which ultimately led to another loss. Luckily, this week, a close loss for the Chargers would be a win against the spread. In this series, in the Herbert era, there have been nothing but close games:
|
Season |
Result |
Herbert QB Rating |
|
2020 |
L 20-23 |
94.40 |
|
2020 |
W 38-21 |
134.10 |
|
2021 |
W 30-24 |
125.00 |
|
2021 |
L 28-34 |
82.80 |
|
2022 |
L 24-27 |
100.50 |
|
2022 |
L 27-30 |
113.20 |
Herbert is 2-4 against the Chiefs in his career, but the Chargers are 5-1 ATS in these games. The only loss ATS came on a Travis Kelce OT touchdown in 2021.
As you can see, Herbert has had plenty of success against Steve Spagnolo defenses. He will need it to continue as the Chargers defense has had its hands full dealing with Patrick Mahomes.
Austin Ekeler made his return last week, and I think he looked healthy. I’d expect him to get more touches this week as they work him back into shape. Josh Palmer continues to admirably fill the void of Mike Williams. Williams has had some monster games vs. the Chiefs in the past, so I think it could be Palmer who is the beneficiary with him out of the lineup.
Although it’s still relatively early in the season, this feels like a must win game for the Chargers as they can’t afford to fall to 2-4. I think the desperation alone should make this game tight, and I think a late field goal will ultimately decides who wins the game. Like many games between two high powered offenses, I think it will come down to who possesses the ball last. The underdog feels like the right side in a game that unfolds that way.
Random Thoughts:
- Two relatively crappy weeks in a row…. Week 7 is the time to get back on track!!!!
- I’m making a bet on Cleveland as well this week…. The defense has been out of this world, and I think they should have a field day on a bad Colts offensive line. Deshaun Watson is looking doubtful, but I think the Browns running game should provide enough offense to fend off the Colts
- Buffalo has absolutely pummeled the Patriots for the past few years. I think there’s a high likelihood that happens again this weekend. Don’t blame you if you target that one…
- Purdy finally had his dud of a game last week…. I was finally right!!!…. I’ve only been calling for it for about 2 years lol…. I don’t really like either side in the game this week. SF should certainly man handle the Vikings, but Minnesota just usually finds a way to make these games 1 score.
- Tampa feels like the right play vs. Atlanta. Atlanta’s run happy approach is destined to fail against the Bucs front seven. I think Ridder could struggle again if he’s forced to try to win in a passing game flow.
- That’s all I have so far…. I’ll try to get these props back on track as well
As an aside, I’ve had multiple people say that they are having issues receiving my emails….. Make sure to check my site multiple times before Sunday. Generally, my ATS picks will come out Wednesday night, Props + SGP’s will follow on Friday or Saturdays**
Good luck!!!!
