“The Money Zone”: Games that have a “Calculated vs. Actual” difference of between 2 and 6 points are considered The Money Zone. Since 2015, games that fall within this tier have hit ~55% on a sample of over 800 games. I consider games in this tier to have a statistical advantage in the long run. This is a completely objective calculation that does not account for injuries, roster changes, weather etc. However, I believe the smartest investment is to make small bets on each one of these games and slowly increase them over time if you are successful.
|
Away |
Home |
Calculated Spread |
Actual Spread |
Calculated vs Actual |
Projected Winner ATS |
|
Minnesota |
Green Bay |
(3.85) |
1.00 |
4.85 |
Green Bay |
|
Cincinnati |
San Francisco |
(1.30) |
(5.50) |
4.20 |
Cincinnati |
|
Baltimore |
Arizona |
11.85 |
8.00 |
3.85 |
Baltimore |
|
Atlanta |
Tennessee |
(0.42) |
3.00 |
3.42 |
Tennessee |
|
Cleveland |
Seattle |
(6.43) |
(3.50) |
2.93 |
Seattle |
|
LA Rams |
Dallas |
(3.94) |
(6.50) |
2.56 |
LA Rams |
|
New Orleans |
Indianapolis |
0.23 |
(1.50) |
1.73 |
New Orleans |
|
Tampa Bay |
Buffalo |
(10.22) |
(8.50) |
1.72 |
Buffalo |
|
Kansas City |
Denver |
8.55 |
7.00 |
1.55 |
Kansas City |
|
NY Jets |
NY Giants |
1.75 |
3.00 |
1.25 |
NY Giants |
|
Philadelphia |
Washington |
5.65 |
6.50 |
0.85 |
Washington |
|
Jacksonville |
Pittsburgh |
1.92 |
2.50 |
0.58 |
Pittsburgh |
|
Houston |
Carolina |
3.48 |
3.00 |
0.48 |
Houston |
|
New England |
Miami |
(9.82) |
(9.50) |
0.32 |
Miami |
|
Las Vegas |
Detroit |
(7.85) |
(8.00) |
0.15 |
Las Vegas |
|
Chicago |
LA Chargers |
(8.55) |
(8.50) |
0.05 |
LA Chargers |
Money Zone picks for Week 8 are Green Bay, Cincinnati, Tennessee, Baltimore, Seattle, & LA Rams
**Money Zone picks are 17-19 ATS in 2023 (47.22%)**
“Shorestein Says” Picks of the Week: Each week I select between 3-5 of my favorite games and do additional analysis on them. I’ve highlighted the “Shorestein Says” picks of the week in yellow. Read below for my in-depth analysis. **Picks of the Week were 15-13 ATS (53.57% 2023)… Now 55-43 ATS since 2022 (56.12%)**
Baltimore -8 @ Arizona: I don’t normally back a team coming off of a blow-out win, but I think the Ravens should be in for a sizable win over the struggling Cardinals. After a few representative starts, Josh Dobbs has quickly regressed into the quarterback that we thought he would be coming into the season. His accuracy and decision making have greatly declined over the past 3 games, and the Cardinals offense has struggled significantly as a result. Here are his numbers over the past 3 games, as teams have appeared to figure out his game after getting a bigger sample of film on him:
|
Opponent |
Completion % |
QB Rating |
Yards / Attempt |
Result |
|
Cincinnati |
46.88% |
57.60 |
5.19 |
L 20-34 |
|
LA Rams |
51.22% |
58.50 |
5.73 |
L 9-26 |
|
Seattle |
57.58% |
68.50 |
4.42 |
L 10-20 |
It’s virtually impossible to be competitive in the modern NFL with passing numbers this poor. It’s rare to see completion percentages in the 50’s, and it’s even rarer to see a yards per attempt avg. below 5. If Dobbs continues to look bad, I think you could see the Cardinals give the rookie Clayton Tune a shot. Regardless, this Ravens defense has feasted on bad quarterbacks so far this season as they have the league’s best passer rating defense and rank high in all the important defensive metrics like success rate and EPA/play. The quarterbacks will not get any breaks this week as they will now be without Zach Ertz for the remainder of the season, who is likely their most reliable pass catching option.
On the other side of the ball, the Cardinals run defense faces a nightmarish matchup in the Ravens offense. I continue to believe that Baltimore has an elite rushing offense with a dominant O-line and the best athlete at the quarterback position in the NFL. Arizona has had major problems stopping the run, as they rank 23rd in Rush EPA and 30th in Rush Success Rate. I’d expect Baltimore to rack up a lot of points even with a conservative game plan. Lamar Jackson certainly got his game back in a groove and he rekindled his connection with Mark Andrews in a dominant effort vs. Detroit. I think they should pick up right where they left off this week.
LA Rams +6.5 @ Dallas: I think these teams are much closer than the market’s implied number. LA has gotten great production from its dynamic duo of receivers in Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua. I think the Dallas defense is vulnerable to some big passing plays that Stafford can capitalize on. The Sean Mcvay offense has done an excellent job getting receivers in open spaces. The Rams rank #1 in the NFL in yards before contact per reception. I love using this as a gauge of offensive scheme. It should be no shock that the other elite teams in this category are the 49ers and the Dolphins.
This Cowboys defense is too reliant on turnovers as they get over 2 per game. The Rams have played with plenty of ball security so far this season as they give it away at the 5th lowest rate. I have confidence in Stafford to take care of the ball and get the ball to his play-makers. I’d also look for the game plan to involve a lot of screens to take advantage of the aggressiveness on the Dallas defensive line.
From a situational perspective, I think the Cowboys are in a potentially vulnerable spot. Next week, they have a matchup with the Eagles in Philadelphia. It would not surprise me one bit to see Dallas overlook the Rams as significant favorites. Dallas doesn’t strike me as the most disciplined team led by Mike McCarthy who generally runs a pretty loose operation. It should come as no shock that the Cowboys have the 5th most penalty yardage in the NFL, which I think speaks to the lack of discipline instilled by the coaching staff.
I’m returning to a trend that I played earlier this season and that is backing the Rams as an underdog. They are now 9-6 ATS (60%) since 2021 as an underdog and I think they should be in an excellent position to play a competitive game in Dallas this weekend.
Cincinnati +5.5 @ San Francisco: The 49ers are at a huge disadvantage this week as they face a well-rested Bengals team coming off the bye, and San Fran is coming in on a short week off a brutally hard-fought loss. I think it’s a very tall order for them to cover a touchdown margin against a team that was penciled in as an AFC favorite before the season started.
The notoriously slow starting Bengals should finally be in a position to build some momentum. I think Burrow should be close to 100% at this point as we are now months removed from his calf injury. We’ve really only seen that Bengals offense in full throttle just once so far this season. I think there are two key factors in this game that give me some confidence that we’ll see a better offensive showing from Cincinnati. The 1st one is that Ja’Marr Chase has absolutely annihilated Charvarious Ward in the past. If you recall, Ward was the Chiefs top cornerback in 2021 when Chase had his 3 touchdown 266 yard masterpiece against Kansas City. It’s unlikely you’ll see Ward left on an island with Chase in this game, but I think Chase should enter this game with high confidence in the potential matchup. Secondly, Orlando Brown is slated to return at tackle for the Bengals this week. Brown’s return should give Burrow additional time to throw against this aggressive Niners defensive front.
The Niners offense got exposed a little these past 2 weeks. I think we finally got to see what Brock Purdy looks like without a dominant run game. Both the Vikings and Browns chose to stack up against the running game and eliminate Christian McCaffery on the ground. The last two games saw McCaffery average just 3.9 and 3.0 yards per carry. A big reason for that of course was the absence of Trent Williams, the most dominant left tackle in the game. Williams is again out at practice early in the week, and his potential loss would be huge. Speaking of huge losses, Deebo Samuel will again be out this week, and I think the 49ers certainly lose some explosiveness on the outside without him. With a sole focus on Brandon Aiyuk and Christian McCaffery, I think Lou Anurumo should devise a smart game plan to take advantage of a depleted Niners offense.
**…….As I write this, I checked my phone to see that Brock Purdy is out with a concussion and Trent Williams/Deebo Samuel remain out of practice. I got this bet at +5.5, and see that the line has moved to +3.5. I would personally recommend waiting until Sunday to see Purdy’s status for the game. If the line rises back to 5.5, I would bet Cincinnati**
Atlanta @ Tennessee +3: I’m taking a shot at the electric quarterback combo of Will Levis/Malik Willis (hope you detected the sarcasm). It’s been reported that Levis will likely draw the start for the Titans, but Vrabel hinted that Willis would also get snaps. Certainly not an ideal situation as a Titans backer this week, but I’m more focused on the other side of the ball that could potentially decide the game. The Titans defense should matchup perfectly against a run heavy Falcons offense. Tennessee continues to be dominant against the run as they allow just 3.6 yards per carry which is good for 7th in the NFL. Anytime Desmond Ridder is forced to win the game through the air, sign me up for the opposing team. I have no faith in Ridder to not only win the game in a hostile road environment but also cover a FG margin. Ridder finally got his first road victory of his career last week in a close win over Tampa. Again, I don’t love the situational spot of a team coming off a narrow victory and coming in as a road favorite. Ridder’s career road numbers are significantly worse than how he has fared at home indoors:
|
Location |
Yards / Attempt |
QB Rating |
Sack % |
Record |
|
Home |
7.27 |
92.00 |
5.79% |
5-1 |
|
Road |
6.25 |
76.10 |
11.76% |
1-4 |
The numbers tell the same story that your eyes would. I also pointed out the huge discrepancy in sack % on the road. I think the lack of pre-snap communication in a road environment can certainly play a role in what he expects for protection. The return of Teair Tart on the defensive line to go with the force of Jeffrey Simmons should put the Falcons in a precarious passing position this weekend.
In addition, Vrabel has proven to be an elite performer off the bye week. Over the last 5 seasons, the Titans are 4-1 ATS (and 4-1 Win/Loss) off the bye. I think Vrabel should also have some insight on how to defend Arhtur Smith’s offense, who was an OC for the Titans at the beginning of his coaching tenure.
Random Thoughts:
- I’m also fading PJ Walker and the Browns. Cleveland survived last week with blocked FG’s, defensive touchdowns, and 60+ yard runs. Just doesn’t seem like a sustainable way to win with poor quarterback play. Seattle, although they have issues on their O-line, is the far more balanced team at this point.
- It’s a common theme this week, but I’m also looking to fade Minnesota. The Vikings had their biggest emotional win of the season, and they face a Packers defense on the road that Kirk Cousins has struggled against. I point to last year when Minnesota won their roller-coaster victory over Buffalo, and then got eviscerated by Dallas in the following week. I think it’s a tough spot.
- I’m expecting an offensive explosion from Detroit after their poor showing last week. Just feels like a lot of points to lay.
- I would normally be all over Miami, but I have injury concerns on their defense. Big number. I’m avoiding.
- Denver is probably in a solid position to cover. Kansas City may have their eye on their showdown in Germany w/ the Dolphins next week. Andy Reid may save some of his bag of tricks for that game which could lead to a closer game.
- Hopefully this is the last time I have to write this, but rough week again last week…. Time to dust it off and get back at it!
As an aside, I’ve had multiple people say that they are having issues receiving my emails….. Make sure to check my site multiple times before Sunday. Generally, my ATS picks will come out Wednesday night, Props + SGP’s will follow on Friday or Saturdays**
Good luck!!!!
