Alexander Mattison Under 45.5 Yards Rushing : (-115 DK )
Got a nice win with Josh Palmer going way over last week…. Glad to get back on track!
I’m targeting the under on a running back who has been losing snaps and rushing opportunities to the recently acquired Cam Akers. If you look at Mattison’s game log this season, the only 2 games where he has gone over this mark came against two of the worst rush defenses in the NFL (Chargers and Panthers). Aside from those two games, Mattison has done virtually nothing on the ground:
|
Opponent |
Carries |
Snap Count % |
Yards |
Yards / Rush |
|
Tampa |
11.00 |
73.00% |
34.00 |
3.09 |
|
Philadelphia |
8.00 |
76.00% |
28.00 |
3.50 |
|
Kansas City |
8.00 |
51.00% |
26.00 |
3.25 |
|
Chicago |
18.00 |
79.00% |
44.00 |
2.44 |
|
San Francisco |
8.00 |
53.00% |
39.00 |
4.88 |
Akers got an increase in workload last week as he accounted for 27 offensive snaps (39%), and he actually outcarried Mattison 10 to 8. I think we’re seeing a transition to Akers as the lead ground back and I don’t think the market has priced that in yet.
In addition, I think the Vikings will face a challenging game script this week for running backs. The Vikings already run the ball less than any team in football as they average just 19 attempts per game (32nd), and they are coming off a physical, emotional game vs. San Francisco on short rest. I like Green Bay to control and win this game which should limit running opportunities for both backs. Kevin O’Connell has shown that he will abandon the run game and put the game in the hands of Kirk Cousins in a comeback setting.
Good Luck!
