Recommendation: Place 80% of your wager on #1, and 20% on #2.
#1) Jaxon Smith-Njigba First WR Taken in Draft (-230 Odds Via WynnBet)
By most accounts, the 2023 draft class is lacking high end talent at wide receiver. There just isn’t much excitement for the names at the top of the board as there typically has been over the past few seasons. However, I think Jaxon Smith-Njigba has the physical tools, smoothness in route running, and toughness to be the top wideout of this draft.
I simply can’t ignore that Smith-Njigba played alongside fellow stud wide receivers at Ohio State in Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave. Not only did Smith-Njigba show that he belonged in their category of talent, but he actually outproduced them by a wide margin in 2021. Here is how the three of them performed with CJ Stroud throwing them the ball:
|
Receiver |
Receptions |
Yardage |
Yards / Catch |
|
Chris Olave |
65.00 |
936.00 |
14.40 |
|
Garrett Wilson |
70.00 |
1,058.00 |
15.11 |
|
Jaxon Smith-Njigba |
95.00 |
1,606.00 |
16.91 |
A lot of people will argue that Smith-Njigba took advantage of the attention that Olave/Wilson drew from opposing defenses, but JSN put that commentary to rest when he had one of the best receiving games in the history of college football in the Rose Bowl in 2021. He went for 346 yards on 15 catches and that was without Olave/Wilson on the field. That kind of production cannot be ignored, and I think he deserves to sit atop the boards of teams across the NFL.
His lack of high end vertical speed is what will probably keep him out of the top 10. However, he ran the best 3 cone drill and 20 yard shuttle out of any wide receiver in the 2023 combine by a wide margin. Many teams believe that he will be best served as a slot receiver, but if you look at what players like Cee Dee Lamb and Cooper Kupp have done primarily from that position, that is no longer a reason to limit a player’s ceiling.
The other receivers that have a chance to go before him have significant questions about their size. Both Zay Flowers and Jordan Addison are under 6 feet and under 180 pounds. They may have more speed than JSN, but I would question how well they can handle NFL physicality.
#2) Jaxon Smith-Njigba picked under 12.5 (+185 Odds Via Caesars)
As we look closer at the first round draft board, I think there are a number of factors that can push JSN to pick #12 to Houston. It is looking more likely that the Texans will be drafting CJ Stroud with the 2nd pick in the draft. Teams have loved pairing their high end rookie quarterbacks with receivers that they played with in college. JSN of course fits that mold.
The second reason why I like JSN to go to Houston is general manager Nick Casario’s affinity to draft “quicker” receivers as opposed to “faster” receivers. Casario spent over a decade in New England working with Bill Belichick, and this was a core philosophy during his regime.
This was an excerpt from 98.5 the Sports Hub on the Patriots draft philosophy under Casario:
“But most of all, the Patriots like to draft receivers who perform well in the drill. The 40-yard dash gets all the glory, but if Bill Belichick had his way the three-cone would headline the Combine. It’s the best test of agility and short-area quickness. So it’s no surprise that Julian Edelman (2009) and Deion Branch (2002) are among the most famous examples.
Edelman wasn’t invited to the Combine, which only adds to his Patriots legend. But he posted a blazing 6.62 three-cone at Kent State’s Pro Day, which would have tied him for fourth overall at the 2009 Combine. Coincidentally, former Pats receiver Tiquan Underwood was the top receiver with the same time.”
Smith Njigba fits this prototype perfectly, and the gaping hole the Texans have at wide receiver should be another reason to take him if he is still on the board by the time they pick at 12.
Good Luck!
