AFC East Future Bet

AFC East Dual Forecast: Top 2 In Division Miami & Buffalo (Either Order) +110 Odds via Draftkings

Buffalo Bills:

It is no surprise that I have the Bills as the kings of the AFC East. Aside from a once in a generation wind storm that caused Buffalo to slip up against the Patriots in 2021, the Bills showed last year that they were far and away the superior team in the division. This is a team that has super bowl aspirations as they added a key piece in Von Miller on the edge, all while retaining virtually the entire starting unit on both sides of the ball. In addition, they picked up Jamison Crowder in the slot who could potentially be an upgrade over Cole Beasley, and added veteran offensive lineman Roger Saffold who should fit in as a depth piece.

I don’t think it is necessary to spend too much time on the Bills as most sportsbooks have them as the championship favorite. Barring a catastrophic injury to Josh Allen, I think Buffalo should sit safely atop the AFC East.

Miami Dolphins

I am extremely high on the prospects of the Miami Dolphins to start the season. Overnight, this offense has likely become the fastest unit in the NFL. Lining up Tyreek Hill next to Jaylen Waddle will give defensive coaches nightmares. The Dolphins were not done when they added the fastest receiver in the NFL. Cedrick Wilson, Raheem Mostert, and Chase Edmunds were all additional speedsters that should give this offense a whole new dimension. Rookie coach Mike McDaniel, a Kyle Shanahan protégé, clearly built this offense around speed. I look forward to see how he can use his creativity to get all these dangerous players in space. McDaniel excelled in getting players in open space last season in San Francisco as he had 3 players that ranked in the top 7 in yards after catch per reception:

This shows me that he knows exactly how to use players with elite talent. I trust the scheme that he will bring to the Dolphins. The 49ers ranked #1 in the NFL in YAC/ Completion in 2021 under the McDaniel/Shanahan offense.

Pass protection was one of the areas that Miami struggled in last year. Tua was under siege at times, and it really stalled out the offense. By signing franchise left tackle Terron Armstead, I think the Dolphins pass protection takes a major step forward in 2022. Tua has shown that he is an accurate passer (67.8% completion % last year) when given the time to throw. Under McDaniel’s scheme, I would expect quick, short passes to fast players in space. San Francisco relied heavily on yards after the catch, as they ranked near the bottom in downfield passing (29^th in Intended Air Yards) but were one of the NFL’s most efficient offenses. However, if Tua struggles, I like the contingency plan that they have at backup QB. Teddy Bridgewater has shown throughout his career, notably in New Orleans, that he can manage a talented team and play winning football.

Miami finished 2021 in a strong fashion going 8-1 down the stretch. Over the years I have become a huge fan of Brian Flores’ aggressive style of blitz defense. Given that he has departed from his position, I hope the defensive philosophy remains. With the talent that they have in the secondary, I think this aggressive blitz-happy style puts them in the best position to win. The trio of Xavien Howard (CB), Byron Jones (CB), and Jevon Holland (safety) gives the defense the confidence to bring creative blitz pressure. Josh Boyer is the defensive coordinator who learned as an assistant on Flores’ staff. I believe that there’s a strong likelihood that he will continue to utilize the same defensive principles that led last year’s defensive unit:

I like Miami to finish 2^nd in the division and be in the hunt for the playoffs in the AFC. Because the AFC is so deep, I think betting Miami to make the playoffs carries more risk. I think this creative bet covers the Dolphins if they aren’t able to squeak into the playoffs.

New England Patriots:

As high as I am on the Dolphins prospects for 2022, I feel the complete opposite for the Patriots. While the majority of the AFC added talent, I think the Patriots lost arguably their best two players on offense (Shaq Mason) and defense (JC Jackson). The Patriots spent the majority of their draft resources trying to fill the voids left by these two departures. To top things off, New England lost offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels to the Raiders and have replaced him with the combined efforts of Joe Judge and Matt Patricia who have essentially no experience running an NFL offense. I am concerned that the Patriots are throwing far too much on the plate of Mac Jones who struggled down the stretch of 2021 going 1-4 including the playoff beat down at Buffalo. Going into last season, I thought the offensive line would be an area of strength for New England, but after Trent Brown was hobbled early, this line was never anything better than average. They replaced their best guard with a rookie and instead of moving on from Trent Brown they brought him back for another season. I think the depth is thinner than usual and they are relying on health from untrustworthy players.

When I look at the Patriots roster, I don’t see any elite talent. I see an aging defense that doesn’t have any viable corners or productive linebackers on the inside. This is a team that couldn’t stop the run when opponents committed to it, and just doesn’t have the team speed to play man to man coverage. I think their strongest positions on the team are running back and safety; but I think you could make the case that these are the least important positions in the modern day NFL.

I just think there are far too many question marks on this Patriots team. They are historically a slow starting team that opens the season with @ Miami, @ Pittsburgh, Baltimore, and @ Green Bay. New England could easily start 1-3 and shake the confidence of their young quarterback. I am fading this Patriots team in 2022.

NY Jets:

I think the Jets could surprise some teams this year. I think they nailed the draft by getting some explosive players on both sides of the ball. I still think this is probably just a 6 win team at best, but I would not be surprised to see them win a game or two in the AFC East. However, I don’t expect them to play a major role and should be penciled in as the 4^th place team.

Good Luck!