NFL 2020 Season – Week 10

“The Money Zone”: Games that have a “Calculated vs. Actual” difference of between 2 and 6 points are considered The Money Zone. Since 2015, games that fall within this tier have hit ~55% on a sample of over 600 games. I consider games in this tier to have a statistical advantage in the long run. This is a completely objective calculation that does not account for injuries, roster changes, weather etc. However, I believe the smartest investment is to make small bets on each one of these games and slowly increase them over time if you are successful. “Money Zone” picks are 33-26 ATS in 2020 (55.93%).

The Week 10 Money Zone picks are Chicago, Jacksonville, San Francisco, Tennessee, Miami, & Washington.

“Shorestein Says” Picks of the Week:  Each week I select between 3-5 of my favorite games and do additional analysis on them.  I’ve highlighted the “Shorestein Says” picks of the week in yellow.  Read below for my in-depth analysis. “Shorestein Says” Picks of the Week are 18-16 ATS in 2020 (52.94%).

Indianapolis @ Tennessee -2: I like Tennessee to take control of the AFC South in this critical divisional matchup.  The key advantage to me is at quarterback in this game.  Ryan Tannehill has maintained his stellar play from last season, which has been even better at home.  As a matter of fact, Tannehill’s home statistics since 2018 can be matched up with the elite QB’s of the NFL:

Ryan Tannehill Home Sweet Home

Tannehill is certainly facing a challenge against the Indy defense, but he has shown that he has been up to the task as he has posted 100+ ratings against Buffalo, Pittsburgh, and Chicago who have been 3 of the strongest defenses over the past few seasons.

Tennessee has really built on the momentum generated from last season, and I think the talent that they have on defense is starting to turn things around.  They virtually shut out the Bears until garbage time last week, and they got a huge defensive score to essentially put the game out of reach.

I think the Colts offense is flawed.  Looking at who they’ve played, I think on the road at Chicago is their only quality win.  They beat up on some bad competition, and when faced with a challenge they have folded badly against Cleveland and Baltimore.  Rivers struggled mightily in both of these contests.  What is even more worrisome for the Colts has been their lack of success running the ball.  They rank 31^st in the NFL at just 3.6 yards / carry, and their running game has been a hallmark of success in the Frank Reich era.  Indianapolis will be in trouble if they have to rely on old man Rivers to win a shootout at this point in his career.  His play has really deteriorated outdoors.  Going back to last year, he is now just 6-12 overall when playing outside.

Minnesota @ Chicago +2.5: The Bears have certainly struggled over the last month, but I am very surprised to see them as home underdogs against a quarterback who they have dominated for the past few seasons.  Kirk Cousins is no fan of the Chicago defense and his play has showed it. In his last 3 matchups with the Bears he has these statistics to show for himself:

Kirk Cousins vs. The Bears

Minnesota’s offense is often built around the success of the running game.  That has been obvious over the past 2 weeks as they gashed Green Bay and Detroit and put up huge scoring totals.  Kirk Cousins is highly dependent on the success of his running game in order to be a confident passer, but the running game was stifled both games at Soldier Field over the past 2 seasons.  His performance has suffered greatly in these instances.

I think you have two teams that are pretty evenly matched and that know each other very well, so I am a little confused as to why the Vikings would lay 2.5 points here.  Chicago’s offense has been brutal these past few weeks, but the Vikings have shown that their defense is more than welcoming to a struggling quarterback as they are 28^th in the NFL in defensive passer rating at 105.10.  I think the biggest reasons for their struggle is their lack of pass rush.  There hasn’t been anyone on the defensive line to match the effectiveness of the Everson Griffen/Danielle Hunter combination that wreaked havoc on opposing QB’s.  I think even Nick Foles can be effective in this game if the Vikings continue to struggle in this area.

San Francisco+10 @ New Orleans: I feel like I deserve a mulligan after publishing last week’s letter only to have virtually the entire 49er offense sit out due to Covid… but I’ll take my loss like a man!

This week I think is a different game if Samuel, Aiyuk, Borne, and Trent Williams are back healthy.  I think it’s obvious that the Saints had their best game of the season Sunday night in Tampa and it’s easy to fall in the trap of expecting that from them again this week.  But that’s just simply not who they have been for the large part of the season.  Aside from the 2 blowouts of the Buccaneers, the Saints have either lost straight up or won by less than a touchdown.  That’s probably a surprising statistic to hear given the amount of times that the Saints have seen significantly large spreads in their favor.  I think this has been a problem for New Orleans for the past few seasons, as they have failed to be a profitable home team against the spread.  Since 2018, they are just 7-14 ATS as a home favorite.

I think you have a perfect storm of public over reaction in this contest.  You have the Niners who were absolutely pummeled on national TV last Thursday Night, and you have the Saints who destroyed the Bucs who many thought was a top team in the NFC on a Sunday Night national stage.  San Francisco will be the team that Vegas will want, and I am comfortable backing a significant underdog that is a well coached team and has a tough, veteran defense.

There’s a strong possibility that Raheem Mostert will be back for the 49ers and they have clearly missed his presence in the running game.  Although the 49ers will be without Kittle for this contest, I am sure that Kyle Shanahan will dial up some similar plays that allowed his offense to put up 48 points in the epic shootout with New Orleans that happened last year.  The 49ers averaged 10 yards per pass attempt and 6.75 yards per rush in that game.  There has to be something that Kyle Shanahan can take from that film and deploy it into this week’s game plan despite their injury losses.

LA Chargers @ Miami -2:  I’m riding out the Dolphins’ hot streak.  Tua played very well in his 2^nd start against a tough Arizona team and won a shootout against Kyler Murray on the road.  Miami’s defense delivered another touchdown against the Cardinals as they continue to make huge plays week after week.  In the two most important statistics that I look at before anything else, Miami has a decisive advantage:

Key Statistical Comparison

As a reminder, yards per point margin is often the best indicator of a team’s coaching/intelligence.  It is essentially, a blend of statistics that gauges field position, red zone efficiency, and turnover margin.  It makes perfect sense to me that the Chargers are ranked 30^th in the intelligence index as they have blown three games in which they were ahead by 17 points or more.

The Dolphins rank 8^th in the NFL in passer rating defense and have proven that they are formidable against solid competition.  I’ve been impressed with Herbert’s early development for the Chargers, but I think he will be tested by Flores’ aggressive blitz scheme.  The Dolphins are averaging 1.8 takeaways per game which is good for 6^th in the NFL.  I’d expect to see them get a few more against the rookie QB.

Both teams have struggled a little bit stopping the run.  I think this is a great week for the Dolphins to run Tua a little more than we’ve seen so far.  He made an unbelievable scrambling play against the Cardinals, and I’d be shocked if they didn’t give him more opportunities to build on that. 

Random Thoughts:

• I haven’t seen a spread on the Steelers/Bengals game with Roethlisberger’s status uncertain at the moment.  I think I’d like the Steelers at anything under 10 points assuming Ben is OK.
• If you’re feeling brave, I think the Jaguars are probably a solid play.  Road underdogs in the money zone have been on fire as of late.
• I’m leaning on the Giants in the NFC matchup.  I see Philly and NY as two very similar teams.  It’s hard for me to see that either would deserve to be a road favorite at over a FG.
• Initially, I was leaning on the Ravens to cover vs. the Patriots, but I think both teams will run so much in that game that the clock will barely stop.  In those types of games, it’s usually a thin margin to cover a big spread.  I’ve also seen the Ravens struggle to stop the run too many times to feel that confident about them.
• I’d probably lean Seattle again, but I think McVay has a solid track record coming off the bye.  I also think they will be fired up to avenge their bad loss to Miami.
• The Raiders have sneakily emerged into contention in the AFC.  They also have some quality wins under their belt including Kansas City and New Orleans.  But despite all that, it looks like a pretty large number for them to be favored by.

Good Luck Everyone!