NFL 2020 Season – Week 12

“The Money Zone”: Games that have a “Calculated vs. Actual” difference of between 2 and 6 points are considered The Money Zone. Since 2015, games that fall within this tier have hit ~55% on a sample of over 600 games. I consider games in this tier to have a statistical advantage in the long run. This is a completely objective calculation that does not account for injuries, roster changes, weather etc. However, I believe the smartest investment is to make small bets on each one of these games and slowly increase them over time if you are successful. “Money Zone” picks are 42-30 ATS in 2020 (58.33%).

The Week 12 Money Zone picks are Washington, New Orleans, Detroit, Las Vegas, Miami, Seattle, Jacksonville, & LA Chargers.

“Shorestein Says” Picks of the Week:  Each week I select between 3-5 of my favorite games and do additional analysis on them.  I’ve highlighted the “Shorestein Says” picks of the week in yellow.  Read below for my in-depth analysis. “Shorestein Says” Picks of the Week are 22-20 ATS in 2020 (52.38%).

Houston @ Detroit +3: I think you’re getting great value on Detroit in this early Thanksgiving Day contest. Houston had its best win of the year last weekend over New England, but the Texans are by no means a deserving road favorite at this point. Watson is certainly hot right now, but I refuse to overlook the major holes in this defense and with the following metrics, I would never support them as a road favorite against any team aside from maybe Jacksonville or the Jets:

Houston’s Defensive Holes

The Lions, as I’ve said previously, are an all over the map type of team, but I have confidence in Stafford to pick apart a bad defense more often than not. I would also look for the Lions to run the ball effectively, especially if D’Andre Swift is cleared to play. Swift has shown that he can be an explosive player when given opportunities. The Texans’ porous run defense has been even worse on the road this season, as they give up 5.7 yards per carry. It’s just not sustainable to cover a spread when the defense can’t stop a nose bleed. Surprisingly, the Texans have only been an away favorite once since 2019 and they failed to cover that game. I think the Lions will bounce back from their dreadful performance against an inferior Panthers team.

Washington +3 @ Dallas: Ah yes, it’s time to reload on the Football Team yet again!… With the amount of times, I’ve backed Washington this season, you’d think that they would be Super Bowl contenders….

But again, I think this is a great spot to fade Dallas. Dallas beat an overrated Vikings team that has almost no pass rush. To me, Dallas is not in a position to be a favorite over just about anyone (again except for the Jets/Jags). Andy Dalton looked decent last week as he had ample time to throw to his talented wide outs. This will not be the case this week, as I continue to be impressed with the Football Team’s defensive line. Only the vaunted Steelers defensive front has sacked quarterbacks at a higher rate than Washington (9.41%). I continue to believe that Washington’s defense is probably the only bright spot of the entire NFC East.

Washington Pass Defense

The Cowboys offensive line continues to miss key pieces, and I would be shocked if the Football Team defensive line doesn’t take over the game. Chase Young is really starting to prove his high draft position.

Offensively, turnovers continue to plague Washington. This is surprising to me, as Alex Smith has been a safe, efficient quarterback for the overwhelming majority of his NFL career. I think it is far more likely that he plays a clean game with limited turnover exposure against one of the league’s worst defenses. Dallas is also ranked 29^th in takeaways as they average less than 1 per game.

I think this is probably a solid opportunity to play the Money line. The Cowboys have been a nightmare to bet as a favorite. Going back to 2018, they are just 10-16 ATS (38%) in these situations and they have clearly not lived up to expectations.

LA Chargers +5.5 @ Buffalo: Justin Herbert continues to light up the league on a weekly basis, even if it hasn’t led to many wins for the Chargers. Luckily, as a 5.5 underdog, the Chargers can still choke away the game and cover the spread!

I think Herbert is in a great position to back as an underdog. Since he has taken over, the Chargers have lost only 2 (out of his 8 starts) by 5 points or more. He would have essentially been 6-2 ATS on a 5.5 spread. His TD/INT ratio is 22/6, QB rating is 104.70, and he is averaging an outstanding 7.7 yards per pass attempt.

Buffalo’s pass defense has continued to drop off from where it was last season and Allen seems to be tracking back to what he has been during his first few seasons, which is an inaccurate, mistake-prone QB. He has only broken an 80 QB rating in 4 of his last 6 games and his TD/INT ratio is just 9/6 over that same span. If you saw the game vs. the Cardinals, he should have thrown at least 2 more interceptions that were dropped.

I think this game is pretty simple to me. The teams are evenly matched from a defensive and skill position standpoint, and you have a more efficient quarterback that is an underdog of close to a TD. I would take the more efficient quarterback in the same scenario 100 times out of 100.

New Orleans -6 @ Denver: As I highlighted last week, the Saints defense has officially emerged to the top of the league. They destroyed the Falcons offensive line and obliterated Matt Ryan; sacking him 8 times. I think this is a dream matchup for the Saints defense as they take on a turnover prone Denver offense which is even more helpless than Atlanta’s.

Looking back at Denver’s win from last week, Miami’s offensive line gave the game away. Tua had almost no time to throw and was constantly pressured throughout the day. I don’t believe this will happen to the Saints as they boast one of the best pass-blocking lines in football as Terron Armstead and Ryan Ramczyk are elite protectors. The Saints have a far better running attack than the Dolphins and should be able to have success on the ground. I was impressed by what Taysom Hill was able to do in his first start, and I was really encouraged to see Michael Thomas return to his 2019 form. Against a team like the Broncos, I’d like to see the Saints play conservatively on offense with short passing and heavy running sets.

This Saints defense should take care of Denver and overwhelm the passing game. I’d expect to see another multiple turnover game from Drew Lock. The Saints are now 3^rd in the NFL in average scoring margin at 7.3/game, and over the past 3 games they have outscored their opponents by an average of 21.3 points. This team is hot and they look to get closer to sealing their bye in the NFC by pounding an inferior opponent.

Random Thoughts:

• The Money Zone has really caught fire as of late and is back over 58%. Hoping that we see that continue with 8 more opportunities in Week 12.
• **Turkey Day Parlay**: I’m never one to play parlays, but I think it’s worth the shot to have some fun on Thanksgiving. I’d go with Detroit +3, Washington (Moneyline), and Baltimore +4.5. I think in the Steelers/Ravens rivalry, it’s always smarter to take the underdog, especially when it’s over a FG spread. These two teams know each other so well, and almost always play a close game. (Also, just saw the news that the Pittsburgh/Baltimore game has been bumped to Sunday… we can still call it a Turkey Day Parlay!)
• Great game with KC visiting Tampa. I’d actually lean Tampa in that one despite how poorly Brady has played recently. I think they have one last push left in them, and their physicality should bother Kansas City.
• I think Miami should take care of the Jets and cover the large spread. I still like them to emerge in the AFC East and the Jets are primed to enter the offseason.
• Jacksonville has been a successful money zone team, but I don’t blame you if you have doubts as they have been a disaster at times.
• Seattle should be a solid play again. I think Russell Wilson put his turnover problems behind him, and they are looking to make their playoff drive.

Good Luck Everyone and Happy Thanksgiving!