“The Money Zone”: Games that have a “Calculated vs. Actual” difference of between 2 and 6 points are considered The Money Zone. Since 2015, games that fall within this tier have hit ~55% on a sample of over 600 games. I consider games in this tier to have a statistical advantage in the long run. This is a completely objective calculation that does not account for injuries, roster changes, weather etc. However, I believe the smartest investment is to make small bets on each one of these games and slowly increase them over time if you are successful. “Money Zone” picks are 47-33 ATS in 2020 (58.75%).
| Away | Home | Calculated Spread | Actual Spread | Calculated vs Actual | Projected Winner ATS |
| New England | LA Chargers | (10.37) | – | 10.37 | LA Chargers |
| Philadelphia | Green Bay | (17.07) | (9.50) | 7.57 | Green Bay |
| Denver | Kansas City | (20.37) | (14.00) | 6.37 | Kansas City |
| Indianapolis | Houston | (2.47) | 3.50 | 5.97 | Houston |
| Las Vegas | NY Jets | 13.57 | 8.00 | 5.57 | Las Vegas |
| New Orleans | Atlanta | 7.20 | 3.00 | 4.20 | New Orleans |
| LA Rams | Arizona | (0.33) | 3.00 | 3.33 | Arizona |
| NY Giants | Seattle | (12.87) | (10.00) | 2.87 | Seattle |
| Cincinnati | Miami | (9.03) | (11.50) | 2.47 | Cincinnati |
| Cleveland | Tennessee | (7.90) | (5.50) | 2.40 | Tennessee |
| Jacksonville | Minnesota | (12.70) | (10.50) | 2.20 | Minnesota |
| Washington | Pittsburgh | (11.50) | (10.00) | 1.50 | Pittsburgh |
| Dallas | Baltimore | (9.13) | (8.00) | 1.13 | Baltimore |
| Detroit | Chicago | (3.33) | (3.00) | 0.33 | Chicago |
| Buffalo | San Francisco | 2.47 | 2.50 | 0.03 | San Francisco |
The Week 13 Money Zone picks are Houston, Las Vegas, New Orleans, Arizona, Seattle, Cincinnati, Tennessee, & Minnesota.
“Shorestein Says” Picks of the Week: Each week I select between 3-5 of my favorite games and do additional analysis on them. I’ve highlighted the “Shorestein Says” picks of the week in yellow. Read below for my in-depth analysis. “Shorestein Says” Picks of the Week are 24-22 ATS in 2020 (52.17%).
Jacksonville @ Minnesota -10.5: I like the Vikings a lot in this contest with a weak Jacksonville defense. Minnesota is in a very desperate spot after their slow start to the season, and need to pull everything together for their final playoff push. I think from a strategic standpoint, Jacksonville is poor in every area that Minnesota is strong. Notably, I think Minnesota will prevail when trying to run the ball.
Jacksonville Defensive Struggles
| Yards / Rush Allowed | Yards / Play | Sack % |
| 4.50 (21st) | 6.30 (32nd) | 2.84% (31st) |
I think the key to stopping Minnesota’s offense starts with slowing down Dalvin Cook. This is simply not something I think Jacksonville can do. Teams that have been able to stop him, then dial up the pressure on Kirk Cousins, and the Jaguars look hopeless in this situation as well. I think when the Vikings are forced to play without the threat of play-action they are very vulnerable, but the offense looks great when it is available. Minnesota is habitually in the top 10 in rushing attempts per game, and the Jaguars get run on an average of 30.2 times per game (which is 29th). I’d expect to see Cook have a huge game and the Jags pass defense is just as vulnerable to Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen.
The Jags came close to upsetting the Browns last week, and I think its common for a bad team to have a let down after a game like that. You saw it just a few weeks ago, when Jacksonville was on the brink of defeating the Packers in week 10. In week 11, they were obliterated by the Steelers 27-3, and they turned the ball over 4 times. I’d expect Mike Glennon to have a game closer to that as he has been terrible for the majority of his career.
LA Rams @ Arizona +3: I think this is a great opportunity to buy low on a very talented Cardinals team that is essentially playing with its season on the line. They have slipped up in back to back weeks in two very difficult places to win when they played at Seattle and at New England. I think they have great value as FG underdogs at home to a divisional foe.
Kyler Murray hasn’t been himself since injuring his shoulder against the Seahawks 2 weeks ago. He was reluctant as a runner against the Patriots, and that definitely hurts the offense. I think this week however, he will have more time to heal, and the team will be more desperate for a win. I think you’ll see him have a very successful day on the ground, and I’d expect the Cardinals offense to come back to life.
Jared Goff has struggled with turnovers over the past month. He has thrown multiple interceptions in 3 of the last 4 games, and he has 5 fumbles over that same span. It was certainly a very difficult stretch against the likes of some very talented defenses in San Fran, Tampa, and Miami. But the Rams have seemed to struggle to get back to their downfield passing game as Goff’s yards per attempt have come down significantly. I don’t think it’s a coincidence that they are struggling in this area given the loss of their best offensive lineman in Andrew Whitworth.
Cincinnati +11.5 @ Miami: I’ve loved Miami for much of this year, but I think this spread is out of hand for a Dolphins team that has relied on turnovers for its offense. During this successful stretch, I think against Arizona has been the only game in which the offense showed that they could move the ball consistently. Here is a look at how the offense has played over the last 3 weeks relative to the rest of the league:
Dolphins 3 Week Struggle
| Yards per Play | Sack % | Yards / Pass Attempt |
| 4.60 (31st) | 8.93% (28th) | 5.70 (28th) |
Again, I just think that a double digit spread for a team that has struggled a lot recently to move the ball is too much. I’m not typically a fan of judging a team’s ability by using raw yardage totals, but I think its important to point out that they have only outgained the Bears and Jets in total yardage this season. I don’t think it’s sustainable to continue to rely on turnovers to cover a double digit spread. I think it’s also a compromising position to be in when you have a heavy favorite that has had major problems with its offensive line.
If anything, Cincinnati has shown that they can do an average job at slowing down a passing game; they rank middle of the pack in passer rating defense. Miami’s defense has also shown some vulnerability to the run, which could keep the Bengals in striking distance.
Las Vegas -8 @ NY Jets: The Raiders were caught sleeping in their blowout loss last week to the Falcons. I find it hard to believe that it would happen again when matched up with a team that is clearly tanking. The Jets are by far the worst team in the NFL and just about every metric shows it:
Jets Worst of the Worst
| Passer Rating Differential | Yards / Point Margin | Yards / Play | Average Scoring Margin |
| -34.50 (32nd) | -5.9 (32nd) | 4.60 (32nd) | -15.50 (32nd) |
To highlight some of the ineptitude:
- The Jets lose the average game by over 15 points/ game; no other team is over 10.
- Jets Passer Rating Differential is negative 34.5, the next worse team is Denver at -23.20. (and they had a receiver start a full game at QB)
- The Jets average 13.8 points per game, and the next worst team is Denver at 19.0.
I think you get the picture here. We are looking at an all-time bad team that Vegas should reestablish momentum on. Before last week, the Raiders were playing very well. They had one of the most efficient offenses in the NFL and Derek Carr was quietly positioning them into the playoffs. But after a heart breaking loss to KC, and a sleep walker game vs. the Falcons, the Raiders are in a must win position. I think they will utilize this position and win by double digits.
Random Thoughts:
- If you bet using my random thoughts last week, you would have went 4-0…. Seattle, Miami, Jacksonville, & Tampa all covered…
- The Money Zone is almost too hot right now. (See Summary at bottom of next page)
- I almost went with New Orleans again, but I think I’ve hit that well too many times over the past few weeks. But there’s no chance I’d back Atlanta in that matchup, as Matt Ryan has been obliterated by that Saints D line.
- Houston is an interesting play. Deshaun Watson has taken his game to the next level over the past few weeks. Just hope that the soft defense can hang on against a physical Colts team.
- Seattle again should be all systems go. It’s looking like the Giants will likely be without Daniel Jones. I don’t think the NY defense can slow down the Seahawks enough to make it a game.
- I’d probably avoid the Chiefs and Packers this week. Two big spreads against teams that have played some tough defense lately.
Good Luck Everyone!