“The Money Zone”: Games that have a “Calculated vs. Actual” difference of between 2 and 6 points are considered The Money Zone. Since 2015, games that fall within this tier have hit ~55% on a sample of over 600 games. I consider games in this tier to have a statistical advantage in the long run. This is a completely objective calculation that does not account for injuries, roster changes, weather etc. However, I believe the smartest investment is to make small bets on each one of these games and slowly increase them over time if you are successful. “Money Zone” picks are 48-40 ATS in 2020 (54.55%).
| Away | Home | Calculated Spread | Actual Spread | Calculated vs Actual | Projected Winner ATS |
| New England | LA Chargers | (10.37) | – | 10.37 | LA Chargers |
| Philadelphia | Green Bay | (17.07) | (9.50) | 7.57 | Green Bay |
| Denver | Kansas City | (20.37) | (14.00) | 6.37 | Kansas City |
| Indianapolis | Houston | (2.47) | 3.50 | 5.97 | Houston |
| Las Vegas | NY Jets | 13.57 | 8.00 | 5.57 | Las Vegas |
| New Orleans | Atlanta | 7.20 | 3.00 | 4.20 | New Orleans |
| LA Rams | Arizona | (0.33) | 3.00 | 3.33 | Arizona |
| NY Giants | Seattle | (12.87) | (10.00) | 2.87 | Seattle |
| Cincinnati | Miami | (9.03) | (11.50) | 2.47 | Cincinnati |
| Cleveland | Tennessee | (7.90) | (5.50) | 2.40 | Tennessee |
| Jacksonville | Minnesota | (12.70) | (10.50) | 2.20 | Minnesota |
| Washington | Pittsburgh | (11.50) | (10.00) | 1.50 | Pittsburgh |
| Dallas | Baltimore | (9.13) | (8.00) | 1.13 | Baltimore |
| Detroit | Chicago | (3.33) | (3.00) | 0.33 | Chicago |
| Buffalo | San Francisco | 2.47 | 2.50 | 0.03 | San Francisco |
The Week 14 Money Zone picks are New Orleans, Cleveland, Miami, Seattle, Pittsburgh, & Washington.
“Shorestein Says” Picks of the Week: Each week I select between 3-5 of my favorite games and do additional analysis on them. I’ve highlighted the “Shorestein Says” picks of the week in yellow. Read below for my in-depth analysis. “Shorestein Says” Picks of the Week are 24-26 ATS in 2020 (48.00%).
Baltimore @ Cleveland +2: I’m leaning on Cleveland in this AFC North divisional matchup with heavy playoff implications. The Browns played Baltimore tough last season as that included a blowout victory early on in the season. I look for them to return to the things that worked in that game as they were able to run for close to 200 yards and 4 touchdowns in a 40-25 win.
I think the Cleveland offense is a tough matchup for the Ravens defense. The Ravens DNA on defense is to blitz heavy and cover on the back end with their talented corners, but I think their weakness falls against teams that are run-heavy and are effective in the play-action game. Kevin Stefanski’s scheme falls exactly in line with these weaknesses of Baltimore. Just like the system he ran in Minnesota, Cleveland’s offense is built around the run threat and the physical offensive line:
Browns Run Game vs. Baltimore
| Team | Rushing Attempts / Game | Red Zone % | Yards / Carry |
| Cleveland Offense | 32.3 (3rd) | 70% (7th) | 4.9 (4th) |
You saw Tennessee attack Baltimore with the same type of game plan a few weeks ago, and they were able to run for over 260 yards and win in OT. I think the two headed attack of Hunt/Chubb is just as viable as what they saw vs. the Titans, and I think the Browns have significant value as a prime time home underdog.
Lamar Jackson still hasn’t regained his 2019 form. He’s only topped a 100+ QB rating 4 times this season and this is after he closed last year with 7 out of 8 games down the stretch over the century mark. I think Greg Roman’s offense has been solved by many of the talented defenses in the NFL. I think Cleveland should be able to slow him down in his 4th career game against the Browns.
Pittsburgh +2 @ Buffalo: Buffalo has definitely emerged in the AFC but I am surprised to see the Steelers as underdogs in this contest. I think you have a classic over reaction on both sides of this matchup. Josh Allen looked phenomenal against San Francisco, and the Bills defense shut down the Niners. Allen hasn’t seen the speed and physicality of this year’s Pittsburgh defense and I think he will be in for a rude awakening. Despite the loss of Bud Dupree, I think this is still the best pass rush in the NFL. The Steelers have dominated the trenches all year long and I don’t expect to see the loss of one player bring the best unit down. TJ Watt is definitely a leading candidate for defensive player of the year, and I think he continues to improve every week. Just to reiterate how dominant the Steelers defense has been this year, here are how they rank in the most vital categories:
Steelers Continue to Dominate on Defense
| Passer Rating Defense | Sack % | Turnovers Forced | Points Allowed |
| 73.80 (1st) | 9.71% (1st) | 1.90 (1st) | 17.60 (1st) |
Looking at the offense, I think the Steelers should be able to move the ball effectively. Roethlisberger continues to be one of the best protected QB’s in the NFL and I would be shocked if the Steelers were plagued by drops yet again. The Bills defense capitalized on bad quarterback play by Nick Mullens. (Mullens continues to look more like Brian Hoyer by the day….) I’d like to see the Steelers try to run the ball a little more. They have the talent on the offensive line to do it, but I just think sometimes they give up too easily. If they have a balanced attack against the Bills, I think they should put up a lot of points.
Since 2019, the Steelers are 7-2 ATS as underdogs. I love them in this position.
Random Thoughts:
- Well last week was easily the worst week of the year across the board. The Money zone was on pace for its best season ever before last week. I’m still hoping it will finish strong!
- Sorry I didn’t include the Rams/Patriots game calculation. I didn’t think I would finish this letter before kickoff. I’d probably lean on the Patriots and the points as they have owned Jared Goff historically. I’d look for them to deploy the same plan Miami used a few weeks ago, but I just don’t think the Patriots have enough tools on offense.
- I think Tampa is probably a smart play. They have a devastating run defense, and I have seen what Kirk Cousins looks like time and again without a running game.
- If I didn’t take the pathetic Bengals last week, I would think about taking them again. Dallas should not be a 3.5 road favorite against anyone.
| Week # | Wins | Losses |
| 1 | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| 2 | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| 3 | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| 4 | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| 5 | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| 6 | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| 7 | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| 8 | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| 9 | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| 10 | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| 11 | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| 12 | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| 13 | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| 14 | ||
| 15 | ||
| 16 | ||
| 17 | ||
| Total | 48.00 | 40 |
Good Luck Everyone!