“The Money Zone”: Games that have a “Calculated vs. Actual” difference of between 2 and 6 points are considered The Money Zone. Since 2015, games that fall within this tier have hit ~55% on a sample of over 600 games. I consider games in this tier to have a statistical advantage in the long run. This is a completely objective calculation that does not account for injuries, roster changes, weather etc. However, I believe the smartest investment is to make small bets on each one of these games and slowly increase them over time if you are successful. “Money Zone” picks are 53-47 ATS in 2020 (53.00%).
| Away | Home | Calculated Spread | Actual Spread | Calculated vs Actual | Projected Winner ATS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay | Detroit | 2.97 | 9.50 | 6.53 | Detroit |
| Indianapolis | Pittsburgh | (4.70) | 1.50 | 6.20 | Pittsburgh |
| Denver | LA Chargers | (8.87) | (3.00) | 5.87 | LA Chargers |
| Cincinnati | Houston | (4.70) | (9.00) | 4.30 | Cincinnati |
| Atlanta | Kansas City | (14.40) | (10.50) | 3.90 | Kansas City |
| Chicago | Jacksonville | 3.93 | 7.50 | 3.57 | Jacksonville |
| Philadelphia | Dallas | 4.53 | 2.00 | 2.53 | Philadelphia |
| Tennessee | Green Bay | (1.30) | (3.50) | 2.20 | Tennessee |
| LA Rams | Seattle | (3.63) | (1.50) | 2.13 | Seattle |
| Carolina | Washington | (3.40) | (1.50) | 1.90 | Washington |
| NY Giants | Baltimore | (8.73) | (10.50) | 1.77 | NY Giants |
| Buffalo | New England | 5.47 | 7.00 | 1.53 | New England |
| Minnesota | New Orleans | (6.30) | (7.00) | 0.70 | Minnesota |
| Cleveland | NY Jets | 9.93 | 9.50 | 0.43 | Cleveland |
| Miami | Las Vegas | 2.60 | 3.00 | 0.40 | Las Vegas |
| San Francisco | Arizona | (4.97) | (5.00) | 0.03 | San Francisco |
The Week 16 Money Zone picks are LA Chargers, Cincinnati, Kansas City, Jacksonville, Philadelphia, Tennessee, & Seattle.
“Shorestein Says” Picks of the Week: Each week I select between 3-5 of my favorite games and do additional analysis on them. I’ve highlighted the “Shorestein Says” picks of the week in yellow. Read below for my in-depth analysis. “Shorestein Says” Picks of the Week are 27-30 ATS in 2020 (47.37%).
Tennessee +3.5 @ Green Bay: The Titans as a FG+ underdog are a no-brainer for me in this particular matchup. I think the Packers have a long history of struggling against run-heavy, physical teams. The Titans have proven that they can run the ball better than almost any team in the league, and they have also shown continued explosiveness in the passing game. The Titans have tied Kansas City as the highest scoring offense in the NFL at over 31 points per game.
In the Packers last 4 losses they struggled to contain the run and it had devastating consequences:
Packers Struggle Against the Run
| Opponent | First Downs Allowed | Total Rushing Yards Allowed | Result |
| 49ers (NFC Championship) | 19.00 | 285.00 | L 20-37 |
| Vikings | 20.00 | 173.00 | L 22-28 |
| Colts | 23.00 | 140.00 | L 31-34 |
| Bucs | 21.00 | 158.00 | L 38-10 |
The Titans are 3rd in the NFL in yards per rush and average the 4th most first downs per game. I think they should have a major advantage running with Derrick Henry, and we have seen Corey Davis emerge as a dynamic receiving threat. I don’t think the Packers defense can hang with this Tennessee offense.
I think the Titans will certainly have their hands full defensively, but they have shown that they can win shootouts in 2020. I think the key could come down to forcing a turnover or two, and this is something that the Titans have done effectively all year. They’re averaging 1.5 turnovers forced per game which ranks them 8th in the league, while the Packers have struggled to force turnovers as they rank just 29th in that category. The Titans have struggled to generate a pass rush all year. They will need to play better in that area to slow down Rodgers.
The Titans have remained one of the better teams to bet as an underdog under Mike Vrabel. As an underdog under his reign, they are 14-9 ATS (61%). I think Vrabel has the edge in the coaching matchup. The barometer that I often use to gauge that is yards per point margin. The Titans rank 5th in that category compared to the Packers’ 10th ranking.
Philadelphia -2 @ Dallas: I think the Eagles have a major advantage in two important areas in this NFC East matchup. The first edge that I give Philly is in their running game. It’s no surprise that under Jalen Hurts’ command, they have really thrived running the ball. What’s even more impressive is that they were able to run the ball against one of the best run defenses in the NFL in the Saints:
Eagles’ Thriving Under Jalen Hurts
| Opponent | Rush Defense Rank | Eagles Rush Yards | Eagles Yards / Rush | Eagles Points Scored |
| New Orleans | 2nd | 246.00 | 6.83 | 24.00 |
The Dallas defensive front has been terrible at containing the run all season. We’ve seen teams with running quarterbacks destroy this defense, including Baltimore’s 34-17 recent rout in which they ran for almost 300 yards. Kyler Murray and the Cardinals also ran for 260 yards in their early season blowout victory over the Cowboys. It just doesn’t seem like Dallas has anything close to an answer for running quarterbacks. I’d expect the Eagles to use an identical approach to what the Ravens and Cardinals did.
The second area in which I believe Philly has a distinct advantage is with their pass rush. Although Philly has had major problems in coverage, their defensive front has been incredibly effective at generating pressure and sacking quarterbacks at the league’s 2nd highest rate. Dallas’ offensive line continues to have problems dealing with pressure. The last time they went against a top 5 pass rush was when they hosted Washington on Thanksgiving and had problems all night.
Dallas was able to generate some momentum with victories over an awful Cincinnati team and an injury ridden 49ers squad. I think they face a tougher challenge against a Philly team that seems to have things going in a better direction. Most importantly, the Eagles’ have cut down on their turnover problems that cost them game after game.
LA Rams @ Seattle -1.5: In this pivotal NFC West matchup, I’m leaning on the better quarterback that has a far better track record in big games. I’d expect the Rams to play significantly better than what they showed vs. the inept Jets, but I just can’t trust Goff on the road against a better quarterback. When Goff is playing well the Rams look like a completely different team, but when he is bad, things get ugly very fast.
Goff’s Epic Failures
| Opponent | Rating | Yards / Attempt | Turnovers | Result |
| San Fran | 72.00 | 5.21 | 1.00 | L 16-24 |
| Miami | 65.90 | 4.67 | 4.00 | L 17-28 |
| San Fran | 52.90 | 6.15 | 3.00 | L 20-23 |
| NY Jets | 89.00 | 6.15 | 1.00 | L 20-23 |
I think at times, the Rams offense can be limited if they are having trouble running. Stopping the run has actually been a major improvement for the Seahawks this year as they are only giving up about 3.9 yards per attempt. I think their pass rush has also shown signs of life since they added Carlos Dunlap about halfway through the season. Goff has shown that he will throw a few balls up for grabs more often than not if he is forced to throw too many times. Seattle is always an opportunistic defense when it comes to forcing turnovers.
In the first matchup between these two teams, it was Wilson who had the critical turnovers and mistakes. He threw an awful interception in the red zone and was sacked 6 times. I think it’s highly unlikely that he will make these types of mistakes again.
The Rams have been a team that Wilson has struggled against historically, but in 3 of the last 5 matchups, the Seahawks have scored over 30 points. I think it’s important that they don’t give up on Chris Carson and the running game early if they don’t have success. Seattle can’t afford to leave themselves vulnerable to Aaron Donald & Co. if they are in obvious passing situations.
Atlanta @ Kansas City -10.5: The Chiefs still look unstoppable to me. After yet another Falcons collapse, I can’t imagine that Atlanta has anything left in the tank in 2020. Once the gates open up on that Falcons defense, the points just keep pouring in. I’d expect to see a lot of those spurts for the Chiefs, as they should be able to move the ball however they chose. Their running game is still effective with whoever they put back there, and there has yet to be a team this season to slow down the tandem of Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce. I would not expect the team to slow them down to be an unfamiliar, dome team with a soft defense. It’s hard for me to envision a scenario where the Chiefs don’t score 40 points.
Matt Ryan’s protection this year has just been God awful. He’s been sacked close to 3 times per game on average, and the Falcons have almost no running game to supplement that. I still have major questions about Atlanta’s offense and how it can perform outside in late December. Although the weather looks pretty mild, Ryan has struggled outdoors for much of his career. Outdoors, he is just 38-34 overall compared to his 59-32 dome record.
With all that has been said about the Kansas City offense, the defense continues to impress me as well. They are now ranked 4th in defensive passer rating, and now ahead of the Football Team’s defense which I have raved about all year.
Random Thoughts:
- I want to see what the NextGen stats are on losing the following 3 scenarios against the spread in a row:
- Probability of Cleveland losing as a +3 underdog with a 1 point lead with under 2 minutes remaining.
- Probability of Vegas losing in Overtime with a 1st and Goal from the 4.
- Probability of losing the Packers as a 9 point favorite with a 20-3 halftime lead against Carolina.
Honestly, I’m fascinated as to what those probabilities would be….
- I almost broke my personal principle of “never bet the Chargers as a favorite”. I even started doing a write up for that, but I wouldn’t be able to look myself in the mirror after.
- The Steelers empire sure came crashing down quickly. That Monday night loss to an awful Bengals team was vintage Mike Tomlin. I think the injuries that have piled up on their defense are starting to take a toll.
- I’d lean on the Football Team again. As long as their starting quarterback puts his mask on at the strip club.
- It’s just so hard for me to take Buffalo seriously as the 2nd biggest threat in the AFC. I still would give the nod to Tennessee.
- Well, the Patriots are finally out of the playoffs. What a run. As a New Englander, i’ve witnessed a lot of spoiled football fans. It’s time for them to realize what a real NFL season looks like.
| Week # | Wins | Losses |
| 1 | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| 2 | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| 3 | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| 4 | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| 5 | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| 6 | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| 7 | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| 8 | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| 9 | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| 10 | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| 11 | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| 12 | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| 13 | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| 14 | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| 15 | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| 16 | ||
| 17 | ||
| Total | 53.00 | 47.00 |
Good Luck Everyone! Merry XMAS!