“The Money Zone”: Games that have a “Calculated vs. Actual” difference of between 2 and 6 points are considered The Money Zone. Since 2015, games that fall within this tier have hit ~55% on a sample of over 600 games. I consider games in this tier to have a statistical advantage in the long run. This is a completely objective calculation that does not account for injuries, roster changes, weather etc. However, I believe the smartest investment is to make small bets on each one of these games and slowly increase them over time if you are successful.
|
Away |
Home |
Calculated Spread |
Actual Spread |
Calculated vs Actual |
Projected Winner ATS |
|
LA Chargers |
Kansas City |
(8.53) |
3.50 |
12.03 |
Kansas City |
|
Baltimore |
Cincinnati |
1.23 |
11.50 |
10.27 |
Cincinnati |
|
Pittsburgh |
Cleveland |
3.27 |
(7.00) |
10.27 |
Pittsburgh |
|
Tennessee |
Houston |
0.17 |
7.50 |
7.33 |
Houston |
|
Miami |
Buffalo |
(6.07) |
– |
6.07 |
Buffalo |
|
Las Vegas |
Denver |
7.03 |
2.00 |
5.03 |
Las Vegas |
|
Arizona |
LA Rams |
(6.80) |
(1.00) |
5.80 |
LA Rams |
|
Washington |
Philadelphia |
5.40 |
1.50 |
3.90 |
Washington |
|
NY Jets |
New England |
(6.43) |
(3.00) |
3.43 |
New England |
|
Green Bay |
Chicago |
7.57 |
5.50 |
2.07 |
Green Bay |
|
Seattle |
San Francisco |
2.70 |
5.50 |
2.80 |
San Francisco |
|
Dallas |
NY Giants |
0.57 |
3.00 |
2.43 |
NY Giants |
|
New Orleans |
Carolina |
4.20 |
6.00 |
1.80 |
Carolina |
|
Jacksonville |
Indianapolis |
(12.73) |
(14.00) |
1.27 |
Jacksonville |
|
Atlanta |
Tampa Bay |
(7.37) |
(6.50) |
0.87 |
Tampa Bay |
|
Minnesota |
Detroit |
6.27 |
7.00 |
0.73 |
Detroit |
The Week 17 Money Zone picks are Las Vegas, LA Rams, Washington, New England, Green Bay, San Francisco, & NY Giants.
**2020 Money Zone Record is 55-51 ATS (51.88%)**
“Shorestein Says” Picks of the Week: Each week I select between 3-5 of my favorite games and do additional analysis on them. I’ve highlighted the “Shorestein Says” picks of the week in yellow. Read below for my in-depth analysis.
**“Shorestein Says” Picks of the Week are 28-33 ATS in 2020**
Washington -1.5 @ Philadelphia: I’m going down with the ship on the Football Team in this final week of the regular season. Alex Smith is back in line and scheduled to start and I think that gives them a safe, steady hand at quarterback. As I’ve said for 2 years, Dwayne Haskins is a disaster at quarterback, and the team decided to move on from him already in just his 2nd year as a 1st round draft pick. The defensive line for Washington continues to dominate game in and game out. Chase Young is an absolute force and the Eagles offensive line which was thrashed by them way back in week 1, will likely not have an answer again. Eagles quarterbacks have gotten sacked at just about a 10% rate for the season which ranks them dead last in the NFL. Philly has been an effective running team as of late with the addition of Jalen Hurts into the lineup, but Washington has been stout against the run, holding opponents to just around 4 yards per carry.
The Football Team has had its own problems in pass protection and they go against a very effective Eagles pass rush. However, Fletcher Cox left last week’s game with an injury and I wouldn’t expect him to be in a rush to play in this final meaningless game for the Eagles. When the Eagles fail to get pressure, they have absolutely no answer in the secondary right now. They’ve gotten torched for 3 consecutive weeks, allowing opposing QB’s to post an average QB rating of 121.1. While Terry Mclaurin’s status is up in the air, Logan Thomas has shown that he can be a dangerous weapon in the passing game at tight end notably with Alex Smith in the lineup.
I expect Washington to control the game with its defense and running game and finally seal up the NFC East on Sunday night.
Green Bay -5.5 @ Chicago: With the only first round bye on the line, this is just as important of a game for Green Bay as it is for Chicago. Green Bay has certainly looked like the most complete team in the NFC for the past month. I’ve been very impressed with the emergence of their defense. I think Jaire Alexander is the perfect player to put on Allen Robinson and completely throw off the Chicago offense as it heavily relies on the production of 1 receiver in its passing game. While Mitch Trubisky and the Bears offense has gotten hot, I do not trust them to continue the effective play against a tougher opponent. Trubisky has had major troubles against Green Bay in his past, as the Bears are just 1-5 against the Packers in his career as a starter. Here’s a look at his past 3 performances:
Trubisky’s Struggles
|
Season |
Result |
QB Rating |
Yards / Attempt |
INT’s |
Sacks |
|
2019 |
L 3 – 10 |
62.10 |
4.07 |
1.00 |
5.00 |
|
2019 |
L 13-21 |
64.50 |
4.98 |
2.00 |
3.00 |
|
2020 |
L 25-41 |
74.70 |
4.61 |
2.00 |
3.00 |
It’s rare to see a quarterback finish a game with under 5 yards per attempt. This has happened in three straight games for the Bears offense under Mitch.
I’ve been really high on the Bears defense in the past, but I think they are outmatched against Green Bay. They haven’t gotten the same impact from the pass rush as they are just middle of the pack this season in sack %, and no one has better protection right now than Aaron Rodgers. Davante Adams looks uncoverable right now, and the Packers running game looks as effective as ever. I think the smart play is on the Packers in this one.
Arizona @ LA Rams -1: I can’t imagine the Rams missing the playoffs this year; they are essentially in a win-and-in situation here. I had never heard of the starter John Wolford, but I did some research and he looks like he should fit well into the Mcvay offense. This Rams offense is built around the running game (including the wide receivers) and play action with a quarterback that feels comfortable throwing on the move. Jared Goff has looked abysmal for parts of this season, and I think they may even benefit from having a new perspective in at QB. I think most importantly, he must avoid the critical mistakes. If he’s able to play a relatively clean game, I think the Rams defense should take care of business.
Kyler Murray’s status is also up in the air for this game, and even if he plays, he’s had a very difficult time against this Rams team:
|
Season |
Result |
QB Rating |
Yards / Attempt |
INT’s |
Sacks |
|
2019 |
L 7-34 |
56.40 |
4.79 |
1.00 |
6.00 |
|
2019 |
L 24-31 |
81.90 |
7.74 |
2.00 |
1.00 |
|
2020 |
L 28-38 |
80.40 |
4.44 |
1.00 |
2.00 |
He has also had a very tough time running against this front. In the 3 career games against LA, he’s only managed 43 total rushing yards. He normally averages about 36 yards rushing per game. It’s not just a Kyler Murray thing, the Rams defense has been great against just about everyone:
|
Points Allowed |
Yards / Rush |
Sack % |
Passer Rating Def |
Opponent Yards / Play |
|
19.30 (3rd) |
3.80 (3rd) |
8.60% (2nd) |
80.10 (2nd) |
4.6 (1st) |
I can’t picture a team with this good of a defense, and this well-coached to miss the playoffs.
Tennessee @ Houston +7.5 (assuming Watson makes the start): Quietly, Deshaun Watson has had a monster season. It’s a shame that his defense has been so pathetic… With that said, I like them to keep this game close and potentially play spoiler. The Titans defense has had major problems getting to the quarterback this year (as we saw last week against Green Bay). They made major mistakes in relying on Vic Beasley and Jadeveon Clowney to fill that role, and they are both gone for the season. The Texans offensive line has been a problem at times, but I think the passing game will be deadly against the lack of pass rush from Tennessee.
In Watson’s five career games against the Titans he’s averaging 9 yards / attempt, has a QB rating of 120, and the Texans are averaging 34 points per contest. I see no reason why this shouldn’t continue on Sunday.
Defensively, let’s be honest, the Texans have had nothing this year. They have the potential to get gashed big time by this Titans running game. They gave up 263 yards rushing in their first matchup, but lost in OT. I honestly think we will see a similar style of game, but I think the Texans have a major advantage as a TD+ underdog. The over/under is 56 this week, which is the highest on the board. I still think we see a game in the 60’s.
Random Thoughts:
- It’s been an interesting year to say the least. Heading into week 13, the Money Zone was close to 59% and was on pace for the best season ever. But after an ice cold December, it’s coming down to the wire to see if my formula will grind out a 6th winning season in 7 years.
- There are several teams that may end up deciding to rest players. Kansas City certainly will rest, Pittsburgh is starting Mason Rudolph, and it looks like Buffalo doesn’t really have a whole lot play for. I would just be careful around those games….
- I’d lean on the Giants this week. Dallas has come to life recently, but I think they’ve always been a hard team to trust late in the year. I don’t think they are a deserving FG favorite within the division as a dome team in cold weather.
- The Patriots continue to look terrible. Although, I find it hard pressed to see Belichick lose to the Jets to close the season. He hates that team with a passion.
- I continue to cast doubt on Buffalo, and they continue to make me look stupid. Let’s see what happens in the playoffs.
Best of Luck Everyone!