“The Money Zone”: Games that have a “Calculated vs. Actual” difference of between 2 and 6 points are considered The Money Zone. Since 2015, games that fall within this tier have hit ~55% on a sample of over 600 games. I consider games in this tier to have a statistical advantage in the long run. This is a completely objective calculation that does not account for injuries, roster changes, weather etc. However, I believe the smartest investment is to make small bets on each one of these games and slowly increase them over time if you are successful. “Money Zone” picks are 30-23 ATS in 2020 (56.60%).
| Away | Home | Calculated Spread | Actual Spread | Calculated vs Actual | Projected Winner ATS |
| Baltimore | Indianapolis | (9.40) | 2.50 | 11.90 | Indianapolis |
| Green Bay | San Francisco | (4.70) | 6.50 | 11.20 | San Francisco |
| NY Giants | Washington | (11.33) | (2.50) | 8.83 | Washington |
| Houston | Jacksonville | (0.70) | 7.00 | 7.70 | Jacksonville |
| Detroit | Minnesota | 2.27 | (4.00) | 6.27 | Detroit |
| New Orleans | Tampa Bay | (10.17) | (5.00) | 5.17 | Tampa Bay |
| New England | NY Jets | 2.33 | 7.50 | 5.17 | NY Jets |
| Miami | Arizona | (0.57) | (4.50) | 3.93 | Miami |
| Seattle | Buffalo | 6.47 | 3.00 | 3.47 | Seattle |
| Carolina | Kansas City | (13.53) | (10.50) | 3.03 | Kansas City |
| Chicago | Tennessee | (8.23) | (6.00) | 2.23 | Tennessee |
| Pittsburgh | Dallas | 12.57 | 14.00 | 1.43 | Dallas |
| Denver | Atlanta | (5.13) | (4.00) | 1.13 | Atlanta |
| Las Vegas | LA Chargers | (0.23) | – | 0.23 | LA Chargers |
The Week 9 Money Zone picks are NY Jets, Miami, Seattle, Kansas City, Tampa Bay, & Tennessee
“Shorestein Says” Picks of the Week: Each week I select between 3-5 of my favorite games and do additional analysis on them. I’ve highlighted the “Shorestein Says” picks of the week in yellow. Read below for my in-depth analysis. “Shorestein Says” Picks of the Week are 18-13 ATS in 2020 (58.06%).
Green Bay @ San Francisco +6.5: In this Thursday night contest, I’m leaning on the 49ers. Despite playing without Jimmy Garoppolo and George Kittle, I think the 49ers remain the tougher, more physical team that tends to give the Packers problems. Regardless of who is suiting up at QB, I don’t see a scenario that has San Francisco as TD underdogs at home where they eviscerated this same Packers team twice last season.
San Francisco exploited the Packers in the run game in both contests last year, and I think they will continue that trend on Thursday.
Packers Struggle to Contain Effective Running Game
| Opponent | Result | Yards / Carry Allowed | Rush Attempts |
| 49ers (Playoff) | L 20-37 | 6.79 | 42.00 |
| 49ers (Regular Season) | L 8-37 | 5.09 | 22.00 |
| Minnesota | L 22-28 | 5.09 | 34.00 |
Green Bay struggled with the run last week in Minnesota, and were dismantled in the playoff loss to the 49ers. Kyle Shanahan’s running game is still very strong as they incorporate a ton of wide receivers runs, most frequently with Deebo Samuel who is a dynamic ball carrier. Nick Mullens has also shown that he can be a capable backup in this offense. He has posted a QB rating above 95 in 6 of his 12 starts as a 49er, and I think he should be able to take advantage of this Packers defense that is currently surrendering a 109.80 defensive passer rating in 2020 which ranks 29th in the NFL.
Although San Francisco is still suffering from injuries on the defensive line, they have been formidable at 5.2 yards per play which ranks them 8th in the league. Fred Warner is one of the best linebackers in the NFL and continues to lead the defense competitively.
Seattle -3 @ Buffalo: You have to love Russell Wilson as a narrow favorite against a Bills team that has trended down recently after their hot start. People were quick to crown Josh Allen as a likely MVP candidate through September, but I was very skeptical. This player has been one of the least efficient quarterbacks in the NFL over the past 2 seasons plus and has struggled with turnovers and completion percentage. You can see him trending back to his career averages in the following statistics:
Tale of Two Allens
| Scenario | Record | Points / Game | Avg. QB Rating / Game | Yards / Attempt |
| First 4 Games | 4-0 | 30.75 | 124.00 | 8.96 |
| Last 4 Games | 2-2 | 18.75 | 76.63 | 6.56 |
Seattle often gets a bad reputation on defense, but I am generally more bullish on them than the public. They’ve shown a consistent ability to force turnovers as they rank 1st in the NFL in 2020 at 2 per game, and were 4th in 2019 at 1.8 per game. Josh Allen has shown that he is more than happy to provide multiple turnover opportunities per game and the Seahawks must capitalize. When you have a quarterback that literally throws a TD every 9.84 passes you want to get him as many possessions as possible. Truly an astounding stat when you sit back and think about it.
What the Seahawks offense continues to do is incredible. They remain 1st in the league in scoring by a pretty wide margin, and the Bills defense has struggled in 2020 after they had really turned things around the past few years:
Buffalo’s Defensive Decline
| Year | Yards / Play | Points Allowed | Def. Passer Rating | Sack % |
| 2019 | 4.9 (2nd) | 16.50 (2nd) | 80.70 (4th) | 8.11% (6th) |
| 2020 | 5.7 (20th) | 24.90 (14th) | 97.70 (23rd) | 6.81 (11th) |
I don’t think there’s any reason to overthink this one. Take the far superior quarterback with the more explosive offense vs. the turnover prone QB as only a FG favorite.
NY Giants @ Washington -2.5: Back on the Football Team again! I’m starting to really like this defense. They showed what they are capable of going against a poor offensive line in the Dallas game. They have multiple players on the defensive line that are capable of taking a game over and I think Chase Young is turning into a true game breaker. On top of that they are getting phenomenal play from Kendall Fuller in the secondary who has been one of the best corners in 2020.
I think this is a classic let down game for the Giants. They significantly overperformed expectations in their Monday night game against Tampa Bay. I think the showing was more of a result of the Bucs looking past the Giants and on to their key NFC South battle with New Orleans. The Giants are now on a short week and have to face a well rested Washington team coming off a bye that just narrowly lost in their matchup a few weeks back. Jones was pressured on 38% of his pass attempts and managed a measly QB rating of 74.9 and only 5.9 yards per pass attempt in that game.
Daniel Jones continues to throw back breaking interceptions, and the Giants offensive line is still a significant work in progress. I think this is a matchup that will be determined by who makes the fewest mistakes, and it’s hard to ever pick Jones in that situation. I think if Ron Rivera has a safe, run heavy game plan, they should pull this one out and remain a viable competitor in the pathetic NFC East.
Random Thoughts:
- Sorry, I’ve only got 3 picks of the week…. I really had my eye on the Lions +4 at Minnesota, but Matthew Stafford is likely to be out after testing positive for Corona.
- How long am I allowed to celebrate my Dolphins pick? I’m still thrilled with how that game played out. Flores played the exact scheme I was expecting and it worked perfectly.
- I think the Falcons and Chargers should use the Trump campaign strategy and start declaring victories at half time….. (sorry, 1 lame political joke every 4 years is required).
- Lamar Jackson’s struggles are starting to get concerning. Clearly, not the same player he was last year.
- I generally like Chicago as a FG+ underdog, but my God that offense is painful to watch. Not sure I could stomach that and Tennessee is in the Money Zone.
- 2 of my picks of the week are outside of the Money Zone. This is the first time all year I’ve made any plays outside of the MZ. Let’s hope they work out well.
Good Luck Everyone!