AJ Brown Over 66.5 Yards Receiving : (-115 Draftkings Sportsbook)
I’ve been waiting for this number to be released all summer. I’m expecting big things out of AJ Brown against the Patriots in the season opener. The Patriots cornerbacks have had a tumultuous offseason as Jack Jones was arrested, Jonathan Jones missed time due to injury, and rookie Christian Gonzalez has been scrutinized for his lack of physical play in training camp and in preseason. I think AJ Brown is a matchup nightmare for these undersized cornerbacks on the Patriots depth chart. Here’s how they stack up:
AJ Brown – 6’1 226
Jonathan Jones – 5’10 190
Christian Gonzalez – 6’2 201
Jack Jones – 5’9 175
Marcus Jones – 5’8 185
Big receivers have given this set of corners problems all camp + preseason. Whether it has been Christian Watson during joint practices or the Patriots own Devante Parker, this secondary has been outmuscled according to multiple reports.
Brown finished the 2022 regular season exceeding the 70 yard mark in 6 straight games, with 5 of those games going for 95+ yards. Brown averaged just under 10 targets with 5.83 catches and 110+ yards per game during this stretch. I think there’s a great chance that this success continues in week 1.
As for game flow, my best guess is that the Patriots defense will attempt to force Jalen Hurts to beat them with his arm rather than his legs. The Eagles were clearly at their best when their offensive line dominated the ground game. I have to think that the Patriots defensive game plan will try to take that away first, and I believe this strategy could leave their undersized corners vulnerable on the outside.
The line movement on the spread towards New England tells me that a lot of industry pros believe this will be a competitive game. I think a closer game ultimately yields more pass attempts for Hurts and more opportunities for AJ Brown.
In addition to the 66.5 yard over, I’ll be targeting the alternate totals as well. Here is a strategy for those:
|
Bet |
% of Bet |
Odds |
|
Over 66.5 |
60.00% |
-115 |
|
75+ Yards |
27.50% |
+110 |
|
100+ Yards |
8.00% |
+285 |
|
125+ Yards |
4.50% |
+700 |
Good Luck!
